#美伊谈判陷入僵局 The confrontation between Iran and the U.S. directly triggered an epic global oil supply crisis, with alarming data:

Strait transportation plummeted: In early April, the average daily shipment was only 3.8 million barrels, an 81% drop from 20 million barrels in February, with some dates completely halted;
Global supply sharply decreased: In March, global oil supply fell to 97 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10.1 million barrels per day from the previous month, marking the largest single-month decline in history;
Exporting countries reducing production/stopping: Kuwait declared "force majeure," with production dropping to a 30-year low; Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE collectively cut over 3 million barrels per day; Iran’s oil exports nearly zeroed out, and the Halek Island oil storage tanks will be "full and overflowing" within 8 days, facing well closure risks (permanent reservoir damage, with hundreds of billions in reactivation costs);
Supply gap is astonishing: The global daily oil deficit exceeds 13 million barrels, with a total loss of 360 million barrels in March and possibly 440 million barrels in April; alternative routes (Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline, UAE’s Fujeirah pipeline) can only compensate for 3.2 million barrels per day, leaving the gap unfilled. The International Energy Agency (IEA) Director Fatih Birol bluntly stated: “This crisis is far more severe than the combined energy crises of 1973, 1979, and 2022, and the global energy system faces a historic test.”

The escalation of confrontation directly ignited a surge in global oil prices:
Before the conflict (February): Brent crude about $85/barrel, NYMEX crude $78/barrel;
After airstrikes (early March): Brent surged to $82.37 (up 13%), NYMEX crude $75.33 (up 12.4%);
Lockdown escalation (April 22): Brent closed at $101.91 (up 3.48%), NYMEX crude $95.15 (up 3.58%), intraday reaching $110–120 per barrel;
Institutional forecasts: JPMorgan predicts oil prices could reach $120–130 per barrel; Citibank states extreme cases could hit $150; some hedge funds warn $200 per barrel is not impossible.

The core logic behind the soaring oil prices: supply-demand imbalance + panic premium + risk costs. The cliff-like drop in supply directly disrupts supply-demand balance; market fears of prolonged lockdowns trigger panic buying; insurance premiums and freight costs soar (oil tanker insurance premiums up 300%, rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10-14 days, increasing costs by 40%), further pushing up oil prices.

Oil is the “blood of industry,” and the surge in oil prices propagates through the entire industrial chain, triggering global inflation:
Transportation and logistics: Gasoline and diesel prices soar, global shipping, air freight, and land transportation costs spike, express and freight prices increase by 20%-50%;
Chemical manufacturing: Raw materials for plastics, rubber, synthetic fibers, fertilizers, etc., increase in price, raising costs for home appliances, automobiles, textiles, and food processing industries, with end-product prices rising 10%-30%;
Food prices: Rising costs of fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural fuel push up global food prices, exacerbating food security risks;
Residents’ lives: Electricity, gas, heating, and travel costs all rise, reducing residents’ purchasing power and shrinking consumption;
Global economy: The already fragile global economic recovery is further strained, with the IMF lowering the 2026 global growth forecast to 2.8%, and many countries facing “stagflation” risks (high inflation + low growth).
Asia’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz is 84%, making it the biggest victim of the confrontation:
China: 60% of crude oil imports pass through the Strait, about 4 million barrels per day; supply shortages lead to inventory declines, rising oil prices push up inflation, and costs for chemicals, transportation, and manufacturing surge, putting economic growth under downward pressure;
India: 75% of crude oil imports depend on the Strait, rising oil prices directly increase fiscal deficits and inflation, with heightened currency depreciation risks;
Japan and South Korea: Over 90% of crude oil imports pass through the Strait, resource-scarce and highly dependent on imports, supply disruptions could cause industrial shutdowns, power shortages, and economic chaos.
The U.S.: Although an oil exporter, rising oil prices increase domestic inflation, putting political pressure on the Biden administration; simultaneously, strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) are being rapidly released (about 1 million barrels per day), and negotiations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE to increase output are underway;
Europe: Natural gas and oil prices both surge, inflation skyrockets, industrial competitiveness declines, and some countries restart coal-fired power plants, forcing a slowdown in energy transition efforts.
Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait: Rising oil prices bring huge profits and increased fiscal revenue; but long-term confrontation hampers exports and threatens facility security, reducing economic stability;
Iran: Exports nearly zero, economy on the brink of collapse, the rial depreciates sharply, inflation soars, and people’s lives become difficult.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz forces a reshaping of global energy transportation and logistics:
Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope: Ultra-large oil tankers (VLCCs) abandon the Strait, reroute via Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, increasing voyage time by 10-14 days, with freight costs rising 40%-60%, lengthening global shipping cycles and tightening capacity;
Expanding land pipeline capacity: Saudi Arabia’s “East-West Pipeline” (Persian Gulf to Red Sea) capacity increases from 2 million to 3.5 million barrels per day; UAE’s “Fujairah Pipeline” capacity increases to 1.2 million barrels per day; Iraq-Turkey Jihan pipeline operates at full capacity, partially compensating for maritime shortages;
Increasing oil storage and diversification of imports: Countries accelerate releasing strategic reserves (the U.S., China, Japan, South Korea combined releasing over 2 million barrels per day); simultaneously, they boost imports from Russia, Brazil, Canada, and other countries to reduce dependence on the Middle East.

This crisis profoundly exposes the fragility of the global energy system, forcing countries to accelerate energy transition:
Short-term: Increase domestic oil and gas extraction (U.S. shale oil, Arctic oil and gas), improve energy self-sufficiency; restart coal and nuclear power to ensure electricity supply;
Long-term: Accelerate development of solar, wind, hydro, and hydrogen energy, promote electric vehicle adoption, and reduce dependence on oil; the EU, China, Japan, and others set higher renewable energy targets, advancing energy transition by 5-10 years.

The essence of the Iran-U.S. confrontation is a geopolitical game over energy, profoundly changing the global geopolitical landscape:
Long-term Iran-U.S. rivalry: The U.S. aims to fully control the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, suppress Iran, and consolidate Middle Eastern hegemony; Iran uses the strait as leverage to oppose U.S. sanctions and seek survival space, making the conflict difficult to reconcile and likely prolonged;
Middle Eastern realignment: Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE “play both sides” between the U.S. and Iran, relying on U.S. security protection but reluctant to fully offend Iran, deepening regional polarization;
Great power competition intensifies: Energy importers like China and India oppose blockades, call for peaceful resolution, and seek greater influence in Middle Eastern affairs; Russia seizes the opportunity to expand its oil exports to Asia, increasing its energy influence;
Normalization of energy weaponization: This crisis makes “energy as a geopolitical weapon” a norm, with more frequent disputes over energy routes and sanctions, and long-term uncertainties in global energy security.