Monetary Policy

2026-03-12 15:15 to 2026-03-12 15:30 (UTC), BTC recorded a +k-line return of 0.79%, with price fluctuating between 69702.5 and 70428.9 USDT, reaching an amplitude of 1.04%. Trading activity was robust during this time window, with noticeably elevated market attention and intensified short-term volatility. The primary driver of this price movement was on-chain large fund flows and increased institutional participation. During the same period, multiple large transfers exceeding 1,000 BTC flowed into exchange cold wallets, with whale addresses concentrating their buying activities. [Text appears to be incomplete]

Gate News reports that as of March 12, market traders are no longer fully pricing in expectations for a single Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026. Previously, the market widely anticipated the Federal Reserve would conduct one rate cut in 2026, but current trading pricing shows this expectation has shifted.

Gate News: On March 12, according to a Reuters survey, among 96 surveyed economists, 63 expect the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in the next quarter to a range of 3.25%-3.50%, higher than the expectation of 51 out of 101 economists in the February survey. Additionally, among 37 surveyed economists, 29 indicated that the Federal Reserve is more likely to maintain interest rates unchanged for a longer period than previously expected.

The ABA chair-elect warns that rising stablecoin use could harm U.S. banks by reducing deposits, impacting rural lending and community loans. Without regulation, banks may need to innovate to retain depositors and support local economies.

Monex Europe analyst report indicates that the Iran conflict is driving safe-haven flows toward the US dollar, and the dollar may continue to be supported in the short term due to rising oil prices and the Federal Reserve maintaining a tight monetary policy. However, in the long term, receding energy price concerns could expose the dollar to downside risks.

From 2026-03-12 09:30 to 2026-03-12 09:45 (UTC), Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a rapid surge within a 0.93% volatility range, achieving a return of +0.85%, with prices fluctuating between 69678.0 and 70324.2 USDT. Trading volume increased approximately 38% compared to the previous hourly average. Market attention surged significantly, with short-term bullish sentiment amplified notably. The primary driver of this market movement was the Federal Reserve Chair's early morning release of policy shift signals, hinting that the pace of future rate hikes may slow down. The market broadly interpreted this as a marginal improvement in the liquidity environment

The Bank of England plans to revisit its stablecoin regulatory framework, potentially relaxing policies to support fintech innovation in response to industry feedback. While regulation aims to ensure safety, excessively stringent requirements have raised concerns among startups that could hinder their development. Analysis suggests that optimized regulation would help facilitate stablecoin adoption and attract international fintech companies.

White House Digital Asset Advisory Committee Executive Director Patrick Wieth supports the legitimacy of stablecoin yields, believing that when foreign investors exchange local currency for U.S. stablecoins, it actually brings new net capital inflows to the U.S. banking system. This view contrasts with the banking industry's concerns about stablecoins stealing deposits and has sparked a debate on how to balance financial innovation with community bank interests.

The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Briden, stated that there is an open attitude towards setting limits on stablecoins and is willing to consider alternative proposals. The limit design has been criticized by the industry, which believes it could harm innovation and competitiveness. Although the consideration of limits is to prevent credit risk, the UK still plans to accept stablecoin issuance applications by the end of 2026 and to test related products within the regulatory sandbox.

Gate News Report, March 12 — Goldman Sachs adjusted its expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, now predicting the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September and December 2026. Previously, Goldman Sachs forecasted rate cuts in June and September 2026.

JPMorgan economists have pointed out that persistently high oil prices could prompt some Asian central banks to adopt hawkish policies, especially Singapore and Malaysia, while the likelihood of Indonesia and the Philippines cutting interest rates decreases. Fiscal policy will become the first line of defense against trade shocks, and the Bank of Korea's decision to raise interest rates will depend on the impact of oil prices on inflation.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated in a podcast that distributed ledger technology can enable T+0 settlement and improve the efficiency of financial services, but caution is needed regarding fraud risks. He mentioned liquidity and the applicability challenges in traditional markets, emphasized that tokenized securities must comply with federal securities laws, and pointed out that the SEC is coordinating regulatory responsibilities with the CFTC.

Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the U.S. President's Digital Asset Advisory Committee, stated that stablecoins compliant with the GENIUS Act will bring deposit inflows to the U.S. banking system, rather than outflows as warned by the banking industry. He mentioned the huge global demand for the US dollar and the provision in the bill that prohibits stablecoin issuers from engaging in bank-like lending.

Trump's digital asset advisory team pointed out that stablecoins regulated under the GENIUS Act are expected to bring new capital inflows to the U.S. banking system, but the banking industry remains cautious about their potential deposit-raising schemes. Although the crypto industry believes regulation should focus on the use of funds, the yield mechanism of stablecoins remains a legislative point of contention. The White House is seeking to establish a new consensus on stablecoin policies.

FDIC Chairman Travis Hill in the summit stated that under the GENIUS Act, stablecoins are not protected by government deposit insurance and are classified as independent assets separate from bank deposits. Stablecoins rely on the reserves of the issuer rather than federal insurance. Additionally, tokenized deposits still enjoy FDIC protection as they are inherently considered bank liabilities. This policy has raised concerns within the banking industry that stablecoins might divert deposits.

The U.S. SEC and CFTC have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to establish a regulatory coordination mechanism in the fields of cryptocurrency and related areas, aiming to address issues of unclear traditional jurisdiction. The memorandum emphasizes a "minimum effective regulation" strategy, intended to reduce intervention in market participants, promote market innovation, and provide a clearer compliance framework to enhance the United States' financial competitiveness.

The European Central Bank announced the Appia roadmap on March 12, aiming to build a tokenized wholesale financial market anchored to central bank money. The plan will go live in 2026, with an open consultation launched and feedback welcomed to support the advancement of the digital euro project.

The US February Consumer Price Index met expectations, prompting Bitcoin prices to rebound to around $70,000. The CPI report reduced market uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, which is favorable for risk assets. Despite global market pressures, Bitcoin continues to benefit from short-term sentiment improvement, but rising energy prices could reignite inflation and impact liquidity. $72,000 is an important resistance level for Bitcoin; a breakthrough is needed for further upward movement.

Gate News Report, March 12 — According to CME "Fed Watch" data: the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 0.6%, and the probability of holding rates steady is 99.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting a total of 25 basis points by April is 11.9%, with an 88.1% chance of no change, and a 0.1% chance of a total cut of 50 basis points. By June, the probability of a total cut of 25 basis points is 33.8%.

The Middle East situation and oil price fluctuations are affecting investor sentiment. U.S. crude oil prices have broken through $91, despite the IEA releasing 400 million barrels of oil. U.S. stocks are mixed, the dollar is rising, and cryptocurrencies have seen a slight rebound, with Bitcoin staying above $70,000. The SEC and CFTC have reached a cooperation agreement to promote cryptocurrency regulation and the development of emerging technologies.