Geopolitics

On March 18, Bitcoin price retreated to $72,300, declining approximately 2%. Ethereum, Solana, and XRP experienced declines close to 3%. U.S. President Trump took a hardline stance toward Iran, with geopolitical tensions driving WTI crude oil prices higher. U.S. February PPI data exceeded expectations, with markets focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Powell's remarks.

Gate News report: On March 18, according to Iranian media reports, Iran will retaliate against attacks on its energy infrastructure by striking enemy targets previously considered safe. Additionally, Iran's Revolutionary Guards are about to issue a warning to Gulf countries. On prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "When will Iran take military action against a Gulf country?" shows probabilities of 88% for today (March 18), 88% for March 19, and 87% for March 20.

Israel's Defense Minister Katz confirmed that Iran's intelligence chief Khatib was killed in military operations, though Iran has not yet confirmed the report. The Israeli government has authorized the military to directly execute decapitation operations without future political approval, which could escalate US-Iran tensions and trigger a rise in market risk-off sentiment.

Trump clarified on Truth Social that the official name of his new bill is the "Saving America Act," opposing the term "Saving Act." The bill aims to pave the way for midterm elections, with a Senate vote expected this week. Trump stated that he will not sign other legislation before this bill passes.

On March 18, Iranian energy facilities came under attack, causing international oil prices to rise, with Brent crude approaching $105 per barrel. The market is monitoring the situation at the Strait of Hormuz, with analysts predicting oil prices will remain in the $95-$110 range. If further attacks occur, prices could surge by $10-$20 per barrel.

Gate News reported on March 18 that Salman Ahmed, analyst at Fidelity International, stated in a webinar that short-term oil demand is highly inelastic, and prices may remain elevated in the near term. He pointed out that oil prices are expected to remain in the range of $90 to $120, despite risks of further spikes. Ahmed believes that global central banks still have time to respond to the impact of Middle East conflicts, which may provide reasons for central banks to remain cautious. Additionally, Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (a critical global oil transportation channel) has caused oil prices to surge to around $100.

Beijing Municipal Government released "Several Measures to Promote Steady and Progressive Economic Development," proposing three supporting policies to promote artificial intelligence applications, including financial subsidies for computing power rental costs and high-quality solutions, as well as support of up to 50 million yuan for demonstration projects.

Ebury analyst Matthew Ryan stated that Middle East conflict could make the European Central Bank more inclined to raise rates rather than cut them, as inflation spikes following the Russia-Ukraine war have made the central bank more vigilant about potential risks. He expects Lagarde will emphasize the importance of controlling inflation at Thursday's meeting.

QCP Capital analysis indicates that BTC price is maintaining around $74,000, with a lack of upward momentum. Although the overall crypto market remains under pressure, the declines are relatively controlled. Central bank policy meetings throughout the year will influence the market, as high oil prices have lowered expectations for rate cuts, and the interest rate environment has weakened support for crypto assets. Until policy and geopolitical situations become clearer, a volatile pattern may continue.

French Finance Minister Lescure stated that France is willing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz after the situation cools down, but on the condition that the war must stop. He emphasized that Europe has the capability to maintain maritime security, but is unwilling to engage in military operations amid the current conflict. This has sparked differences between Europe and the United States regarding military involvement in the Middle East, reflecting the complexity of energy security and its potential implications.

Gate News reports that on March 18, according to Israeli media, Iran's intelligence minister Ismail Khatib was assassinated last night. There are currently no updates regarding his whereabouts.

Citigroup has lowered its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, signaling a shift toward caution on the cryptocurrency market's medium-term outlook, primarily due to slow progress in U.S. crypto asset legislation. Bitcoin's target was reduced from $143,000 to $112,000, while Ethereum's fell to $3,175. Despite upside potential remaining in the future, the lack of new policy catalysts suggests prices may oscillate within a range in the near term. Citigroup's assessment of Ethereum is more cautious, as it believes the asset is more significantly impacted by on-chain activity.

The German government has announced a data center expansion strategy plan, aiming to double computing power by 2030 and increase AI-dedicated computing power fourfold to meet rapidly growing data processing demands and promote Germany as a European data center hub.

Under Middle East geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin faced widespread selling pressure, particularly from retail holders. According to Glassnode data, the market is experiencing heavy selling pressure, with the accumulated trend score declining to 0.04, indicating that retail and small-to-medium investors are reducing their positions significantly. Despite this, Bitcoin's resilience against the decline has surprised market observers.

Bitcoin's upward momentum weakened after touching $75,000, with market concerns about a near-term peak. Despite continued institutional accumulation pushing total open interest to $58 billion, prices face pressure from macro uncertainty. Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $1.5 billion support the price. Market focus remains on the Federal Reserve meeting and geopolitical situation, which may impact near-term trends.

On March 18, Polymarket prediction market showed that three investors who had previously profited in Middle Eastern markets wagered $11,800, betting on whether Netanyahu would step down by March 31, with current odds at 3%. Netanyahu's consecutive absences from multiple meetings have raised external concerns about his health condition, and related videos are suspected to possibly contain AI-generated content.

European stock markets are expected to open broadly higher, as investors focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. International oil prices have temporarily declined due to rising inventories, and geopolitical uncertainties are increasing. The market generally anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, while EU inflation data and rate decisions from multiple central banks will influence global market fluctuations.

Gate News report: On March 18, according to CCTV News, Iran stated on the 18th that Majid Mousavi, commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force, issued a statement saying that Iran plans to "launch the most forceful retaliatory strike so far against the enemy" and make the enemy's airspace "more spectacular." The statement said that this escalated retaliatory operation aims to respond to calls from the Iranian people for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to inflict heavier blows on the enemy. Mousavi emphasized that "hostile forces have absolutely no possibility of defeating Iran."

Nvidia plans to introduce the Groq 3 LPU inference chip to the Chinese market in May. This chip is not a downgraded version, but rather Groq's first product introduction to China. The Groq 3 LPU features high bandwidth and a unique architecture that may circumvent U.S. export controls, but it requires adaptation to other systems, and its performance remains to be seen.