Will Bitcoin keep up as U.S. stocks continue to hit new highs?

Writing: Blockchain Knight

Recently, U.S. stocks have been continuously refreshing their all-time highs, while Bitcoin has shown only a moderate rise. This divergence is not accidental, but the combined result of multiple macroeconomic and market-structure factors layered together.

From a macro liquidity perspective, the rise in U.S. stocks comes more from strengthened expectations of a soft landing for the economy, as well as optimistic pricing by the market for the new Fed chair’s future rate-cut path.

In particular, the AI industry has remained hot, driving funds to concentrate and flow into technology giants, making the index performance stand out.

However, Bitcoin is even more sensitive to liquidity, and its increases often depend on genuine “easing,” such as large-scale money dumping or rapid interest-rate declines. But right now, the market is still in a phase of anticipated easing, so funds are more inclined toward stocks with higher certainty.

In addition, the current capital composition of the two markets still shows a significant difference. The rise in U.S. stocks is mainly driven by institutional funds, especially passive index funds and large asset managers that continue to add positions.

As for Bitcoin, although it has seen sustained capital inflows through ETFs recently, its overall scale is still not enough to compete with the U.S. stock market.

At the same time, some early profit-taking has already been cashed out at high levels, weakening Bitcoin’s upside momentum and creating an appearance that it can’t rise further.

The market’s current risk appetite is not one of broad-based expansion, but rather a structural risk preference. Funds are more willing to bet on technology companies with clear earnings logic, rather than crypto assets driven purely by narratives.

Although Bitcoin is regarded as digital gold, in a phase when economic expectations improve, its safe-haven attributes are actually weakened, and its appeal declines.

In addition, the regulatory environment and market sentiment are also affecting the pace. The United States still has uncertainty regarding regulation of the crypto industry (especially with the recent repeated setbacks of the clear-legislation bills), which limits further entry of some institutional capital. By comparison, the institutional environment in U.S. stocks is more mature and transparent, and capital allocation is smoother.

But over the next period of time, Bitcoin still has the possibility to catch up with gains. If Kevin Woorge, after succeeding, can enter a rate-cut cycle and liquidity is truly released, Bitcoin may see a stretch of rallying—making up for the current lag, and potentially even outperforming U.S. stocks.

Of course, if AI-driven profit growth continues to exceed expectations and macro liquidity does not loosen significantly, funds may continue to concentrate on core U.S. assets, while Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound but with a lower probability of a trend-breaking breakout.

There is also a bad possibility: if economic data weakens or policy expectations reverse, leading to a pullback in U.S. stocks from high levels, Bitcoin may also be unable to stay unaffected. And because it is more volatile, the adjustment would inevitably be even larger.

Therefore, at present it is not that Bitcoin’s fundamentals have weakened; rather, it is the result of a phase shift in capital preference.

From a mid- to long-term perspective, Bitcoin is still in the process of becoming institutionalized, and its linkage with traditional financial markets will gradually strengthen. But in the short term, the strong pattern in U.S. stocks may still continue until a true liquidity turning point appears.