New Perspective on Gold Trend ($XAU, $PAXG)

The current gold market is still operating in a rather “sensitive” environment, where both macroeconomic and technical factors are signaling mixed signals. However, if we break down each layer, a clearer picture emerges. Core Argument: Real Interest Rates In the long term, the most important variable to monitor is the real interest rate. The formula is very simple: Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate – Inflation When inflation rises rapidly (for example, due to soaring oil prices) but interest rates do not increase accordingly → real interest rates decrease When real interest rates decrease → gold tends to increase in price This is why, despite short-term corrections, the long-term trend of gold remains upward. A point to note: If the halt or tightening of monetary easing is due to strong economic recovery → it could reverse the trend to a long-term decline But if interest rate hikes are driven by high inflation (such as during oil crises) → gold usually only dips temporarily and quickly resumes its upward trend Technical Perspective: Wave Structure Is Completing 1H Chart: Unfinished Signal On the 1-hour chart, the market shows a “dampening” state (roughly meaning momentum is weakening but not fully reversing). This indicates: The downtrend is not over There may still be a “sweep” down before forming a bottom The target zone mentioned is around 4200. 30-Min Chart: Wave C-4 → C-5 Structure On a smaller timeframe (30 minutes), the current movement can be viewed as wave C-4: C-4 aims to push the indicator (DIF) back up, even surpassing the zero line But the real goal is to create conditions for a further decline Reasonable scenario: A slight dip first Then a strong rebound (~4%) → completing the zigzag C-4 wave Followed by wave C-5, which drops sharply back to around 4200 News Factors: Short-term Catalysts An important variable is geopolitical tension (e.g., small-scale conflicts). Possible scenarios: Period of high volatility → short-term sell-off in gold As tensions ease or negotiations begin → gold rebounds Overall Scenario Combining both perspectives: Short-term: → Possible dip back to around 4200 Medium-term: → After forming a bottom, gold has the potential for a strong rebound Recovery target: → 4800+ Conclusion Currently, gold is not a “rise or fall” story but a correction to continue the long-term upward trend. The key points: Don’t be distracted by short-term volatility Monitor real interest rates and wave structures If the scenario unfolds as expected, the upcoming deep dip could be an opportunity, not a risk.