Trading strategy for midday on Thursday, November 13

Today, the price of Bitcoin is stuck at 102030, having dropped 1.252% in the last 24 hours, indicating a general downward trend. Let's look at the technical aspects; the indicators right now are quite straightforward. The moving average system is clearly in a bearish arrangement, and the current price is lower than the MA5, MA10, and other moving averages. MA5 has crossed below MA10, forming a death cross, making it difficult to rebound in the short term. The MACD is also in a death cross state, showing strong bearish momentum. However, it's not all bad news; the RSI is at 34.64, close to the oversold line, and the KDJ is already oversold. Moreover, the price is hovering near the lower Bollinger Band without breaking below, indicating that the downward momentum is gradually weakening.

Looking at the funds and K-line patterns, these two points are crucial. Both the 24-hour contracts and spot funds are flowing out, and the bears are indeed in the dominant position. However, the funds for the 4-hour and 6-hour contracts have begun to flow back, which is a signal for a potential short-term rebound. The K-line has also provided clear indications, with several instances of long lower shadows. After the low point of 98888.8, it hasn't tested lower again, and the support around 100000 USDT is very strong. Now, a doji has appeared, and this pattern often signifies a change in trend, so the upcoming price movements need to be closely monitored.

Long trading strategy: prioritize a cautious approach.
1. The radicals want to test the waters, at the current price of 102030, they can lightly hold a 20% position to try going long, but don't use heavy positions, after all, the trend hasn't completely improved.
2. The conservative party will buy in batches in the range of 100800 - 101000, with a maximum position of 30%. This position is close to the lower Bollinger Band support, making it much safer.
Stop-loss must be set firmly. If it falls below 99000, withdraw quickly; otherwise, you might get stuck at 95177, which would result in a significant loss. As for the target, first look at the resistance level of 104200. Once it reaches that point, you can reduce half of your position; if it continues to rise, then you can look at 105300. If it can break through 105300, there is hope to reach 107100 afterwards.

Short-selling strategy: Don't chase the drop, wait for the rebound before taking action.
Now directly shorting is not cost-effective, as it is already close to being oversold. If the price rebounds to around 104200 later and fails to hold above this MA20 midline resistance, then a small short position can be tried. Additionally, if it unexpectedly breaks below the key support at 99000, a small position can also be followed short, with a target of 95177, but the position must also be controlled to avoid liquidation from a sudden rebound.

Finally, a couple of reminders: whether the 4-hour line can stabilize at 103000 is particularly crucial. This is the key to determining whether the short-term rebound can continue. #CoinDesk11月报告Gate战绩来袭 $BTC