Misconceptions About the 4-Year Cycle and the Reality of the Crypto Industry

Throughout the growth period of the cryptocurrency industry, one of the most widely circulated misconceptions is the "4-year cycle" – the idea that if you just buy before the reward fall (halving) and sell afterwards, anyone can easily get rich. However, this notion is gradually losing its persuasiveness as the market matures and becomes more sophisticated. The Truth About "Easy Trick" Those who pursue this strategy have promised a quick and easy way to profit. But upon closer examination, this strategy is actually only suitable in the early stages, when the market has not reached consensus and the basic rules of the industry are still being formed. The first two cycles may have proven effective, but that does not mean this strategy will be eternally valid in the increasingly complex market. The Importance of Long-Term Vision Like many other enthusiastic investors, I always believe in the future of this industry. However, it is important to clearly distinguish between long-term optimism and the expectation of quick profits based on a certain "trick." Placing too much emphasis on the falling reward cycle will trap many people, as external factors and market volatility gradually take control. Changes and Development of the Market The cryptocurrency market is gradually entering the "urban" phase, where the impact of macroeconomic factors, financial policies, and liquidity sources such as QE (quantitative easing) become important. In addition, the process of accepting and applying cryptocurrency in other fields – beyond just being an investment asset – also contributes to reshaping the entire market landscape. Macroeconomic Factors: The policies of central banks, the overall economic situation, and global financial factors will play an increasingly vital role in guiding market trends. Liquidity and Financial Policy: Quantitative easing policies have contributed to injecting money into the market, creating positive shocks, but also pose many risks if not managed closely. Practical Applications: As cryptocurrencies gradually find applications in various sectors – from payments, value storage to applied blockchain technology – their value will be assessed by more objective criteria rather than simply the promise of profits from the "4-year trick." Conclusion Although the future of the cryptocurrency industry remains promising, maintaining a rigid perspective based on a 4-year cycle is not feasible. Investors need to develop analytical capabilities based on a range of factors, from macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy to the practical applications of blockchain technology. Don't let short-term advice and easy tricks distract you, because the market is always volatile and only those who understand the fundamentals and global trends can maintain their confidence and achieve long-term success. Let us move forward with a deeper and more comprehensive perspective, not just relying on outdated models but also being flexible to adapt to the changes of the times.