Goldman Sachs economist raises 'limited' US recession risk to 25%

On August 5th, Jinshi data reported that Goldman Sachs economists raised the probability of a recession in the United States within the next year from 10% to 25%, but stated that there are multiple reasons not to worry about an economic recession even if the unemployment rate rises. In a report released to clients on Sunday, Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, stated that 'we still believe that the risk of a recession is limited.' The overall US economy appears to be 'still good,' with no major financial imbalances and the Federal Reserve has significant room for interest rate cuts and can act quickly if necessary. Goldman Sachs' forecast for the Federal Reserve is not as aggressive as JPMorgan and Citigroup. Hatzius' team expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, November, and December, while JPMorgan and Citigroup expect policy makers to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.