Bitcoin ETF investors have overall turned to losses, with the $89,600 cost line breached triggering a selling test.

Glassnode data shows that the average cost basis for Bitcoin ETF investors is about $89,600, a key level that was broken on November 18, 2025, marking a shift into a loss position for institutions and retail investors entering the Bitcoin market through the ETF channel.

The data is calculated based on the volume-weighted average price of all inflows since the launch of the ETF. When Bitcoin trades below this line, the holdings of this group show unrealized losses. Although early investors who bought in the $40,000 to $70,000 range are still in profit, this milestone event highlights the rapid decline in optimistic sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

Cost Structure Analysis and Investor Position Distribution

In-depth data provided by Glassnode analyst Sean Rose shows that Bitcoin ETF holdings exhibit a clear bimodal distribution. Early investors established a large number of positions in the range of $40,000 to $70,000, and these positions still maintain considerable profits even at current prices.

However, the cost of funds entering the market after August 2025 is generally above $85,000, especially the $12 billion that flooded in October when Bitcoin broke $100,000, with an average cost reaching $102,000-$105,000, which has currently incurred a loss of 15-20%.

From the distribution of ETF shares, BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC have a lower average cost due to their earlier listing; while the specialized funds and leveraged products that were listed later have a higher cost, experiencing greater pressure. This difference in cost structure explains why some ETFs have experienced more severe capital outflows.

Bitcoin Market Background and Technical Deterioration

The fall of Bitcoin below the ETF investor cost line occurred against the backdrop of a broader market sell-off. Bitcoin has fallen more than 30% from its historical high of $126,080 at the beginning of October, breaking the psychological barrier of $100,000 and the support level of $90,000, marking a new low since April. Two key bearish signals have emerged from a technical perspective: a death cross (the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average) has formed, and the weekly close has fallen below the 50-week moving average for the first time since October 2023. In CryptoQuant's bull market scoring index, 8 out of 10 key on-chain indicators show bearish signals, only 2 remain neutral, and none are bullish. The derivatives market is similarly pessimistic, with the 25-delta skew turning negative, indicating that options traders are buying put options for downside protection.

Bitcoin ETF investment status key data

• Average Cost Basis: $89,600 (Volume Weighted)
• Current Price Position: Below the cost line (floating loss status)
• Early investment range: $40,000-70,000 (still profitable)
• Recent Capital Cost: 102,000-105,000 USD (loss of 15-20%)
• Weekly capital outflow: $2 billion (highest since February)

Macroeconomic Factors and Liquidity Tightening

The recent fall is closely related to the deterioration of the macro environment. The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has dropped from 80% in October to 40%, prompting investors to reprice risk assets. The U.S. Treasury has increased the issuance of government bonds to absorb market liquidity, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising above 4.11%.

Tech stocks are also under pressure, with concerns intensifying ahead of NVIDIA's earnings report, and its stock price fell following news of Peter Thiel's hedge fund liquidating its holdings. The dollar index remains steady around 106, while gold has fallen for four consecutive days to the $4,000/ounce mark, indicating a general risk-averse sentiment.

Vantage Markets analyst Hebe Chen pointed out: “The shift from Bitcoin to high-flying tech stocks reflects a defensive instinct against 'unknown unknowns'; volatility remains a fundamental condition until visibility improves.”

Bitcoin Historical Comparison and Potential Recovery Path

Historical data provides some reference for the current situation. In 2023, Bitcoin ETF investors experienced an overall loss twice, but both times recovered to profitability within 6-8 weeks. Key recovery conditions include: Bitcoin weekly closing above $105,000, a shift in Fed policy towards dovish, and positive economic growth data.

Farzam Ehsani, the CEO of VALR, believes that “the Federal Reserve's commitment to cut interest rates in December and the statistical data showing clear signs of steady economic growth and successful inflation fighting in the U.S.” is a necessary catalyst for restoring confidence. In the short term, Bitcoin needs to hold the support area of $83,800, which is the target of the ABCD bearish pattern and the Fibonacci 50% retracement level of the upward trend in 2024.

Bitcoin Investment Strategies and Position Management Recommendations

In the face of market uncertainty, investors may consider several response strategies. For ETF holders, if the cost is above $95,000, it is recommended to set a stop-loss at $83,800; those with a lower cost may consider averaging down in the $85,000-$88,000 range.

In terms of options strategy, purchasing a put option with an expiration date in March 2026 and a strike price of $80,000 provides downside protection, with an annualized cost of about 5% of the position value. For investors with no positions, it is recommended to wait for the weekly RSI to fall below 30 (currently at 37) and the appearance of a bullish engulfing pattern before entering the market. From an asset allocation perspective, the Bitcoin position should not exceed 5% of the portfolio until the price reclaims the 50-week moving average.

When the convenient ETF channel turns into a fast track of losses, investors truly understand the essence of risk in the cryptocurrency market. The breach of the $89,600 cost line is not only a price milestone but also a touchstone for market sentiment - those investors who base their beliefs on long-term convictions rather than short-term trends may be able to persevere through this test until the next dawn.

FAQ

What is the average cost for Bitcoin ETF investors?

According to Glassnode data, based on the volume-weighted average price, the average cost basis for Bitcoin ETF investors is approximately $89,600.

Why is this cost line important?

When the price of Bitcoin falls below this level, it means that most investors entering through the ETF are in a loss position, which may affect their holding determination and trigger further sell-offs.

Which investors are still profitable?

Early investors who bought in the range of $40,000 to $70,000 are still profitable, with these positions mainly established from early 2024 to mid-2025.

What bearish signals are currently in the market?

The formation of a death cross, weekly close below the 50-week moving average, a majority of on-chain indicators turning bearish, and a negative skew in the options market are all bearish signals.

What position does Bitcoin need to recover in order to reverse the situation?

Analysts believe that a weekly close above $105,000 is crucial, and it requires a dovish turn from the Federal Reserve along with positive economic data.