Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will the Rebound in 2026 Be the "Last Escape Window"?

Crypto Assets analyst EndGame Macro's latest Technical Analysis points out that Bitcoin may experience a technical Rebound in early 2026, but this Rebound is not the starting point of a new bull run, rather it is a “bull trap” in a larger downtrend. Key indicators show that Bitcoin's recent price movement is highly similar to the pattern of breaking below the three-month consolidation range in March 2025, but if it cannot break through the $110,000 MA within a week after this death cross forms, it will confirm the “macro lower high” structure.

With the weakening trend of the US dollar index, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December falling to 44%, and the continuous outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs, analysts warn that a deep correction may occur in the second quarter of 2026 due to tightening liquidity. Investors need to closely monitor the test results of Bitcoin against key resistance before the end of November.

Bitcoin Price Patterns and Historical Price Movements Comparison

The current Bitcoin price chart shows a striking similarity to March 2025 – both times, it broke below a rectangular consolidation range that lasted for three months after setting a historical high. The comparison chart released by technical analyst EndGame Macro on platform X indicates that both breakouts were accompanied by a volume increase of over 30%, and the relative strength index quickly fell back from the overbought zone to the 50 midline. The difference is that the rebound in April 2025 successfully reclaimed lost ground and began a journey to new highs, while the current situation faces greater uncertainty due to a deteriorating macro environment.

Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, added that the Bitcoin death cross (50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA) has formed. Historical data shows that when such signals occur, if a strong rebound does not happen within a week, it usually indicates a consolidation period of 3-6 months. As of November 18, Bitcoin found short-term support around $103,000, but bulls need to break through the $110,000 level within the remaining trading days of November.

Interpretation of Liquidity Environment and Macroeconomic Signals

The potential sources of decline in the second quarter of 2026 stem from tightening macro liquidity. The balance of the U.S. Treasury's general account typically accumulates rapidly during tax season, and it is expected to absorb $300 billion to $400 billion of market liquidity from April to June 2026. This, combined with the pace of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening, could lead to a 5% to 7% reduction in financial system reserves. Although the U.S. dollar index currently maintains a downward structure, recent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials have caused the probability of a rate cut in December to plummet from 88% to 44%.

This policy uncertainty has caused the dollar index to remain stuck in the 104-106 range, and if it breaks through the critical resistance at 107, it will put greater pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin. Notably, the economic data that was missing during the U.S. government shutdown is gradually being released, and this lagging data may reveal signs of economic slowdown, further constraining the Federal Reserve's room for easing.

Institutional Fund Flow and Market Sentiment Indicators

Since the market flash crash on October 10, Bitcoin spot ETFs have continued to experience capital outflows, with a total outflow of $1.87 billion. Leading products such as BlackRock's IBIT have seen net redemptions for the first time for three consecutive weeks, reflecting a significant decline in risk appetite among institutional investors. On-chain data also supports this trend: the inventory of Bitcoin on exchanges has increased by 5%, and the transfer frequency of whale addresses has decreased by 22%, both indicating an enhanced willingness to take profits.

However, the derivatives market has not shown extreme panic, with Bitcoin futures open interest remaining at a high level of $38 billion, and the options put-call ratio stable around 0.7. This divergence suggests that professional traders are positioning for volatility strategies, anticipating a directional breakout in the next three months. Historically, similar environments often accompany a pullback of 25% - 35%, but they can also create medium to long-term entry opportunities.

Bitcoin Key Technical Signals Summary

• Death Cross Formation Time: Second week of November 2024
• 50 DMA Key Resistance: 110,000 USD
• December Fed Rate Cut Probability: 44% (decreased by 44 percentage points within the month)
• ETF capital outflow: $1.87 billion (since October 10)
• Key Range for Dollar Index: 104-106

Bitcoin Price Movement Projection in Different Scenarios

In an optimistic scenario, if Bitcoin strongly breaks through $110,000 before the end of November, it will replicate the V-shaped reversal of April 2025, targeting the range of $130,000 to $140,000. The realization of this scenario requires the combination of three major conditions: the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in December, the dollar index falls below the 100 support level, and Bitcoin ETF sees over $1 billion inflow in a single week again.

The neutral scenario corresponds to a range-bound fluctuation - Bitcoin consolidating between 98,000 and 112,000 USD for 3-4 months, waiting for macroeconomic policies to clarify in the first quarter of 2025. The pessimistic scenario is the “bull trap rebound” warned by analysts: rebounding to 105,000 USD in Q1 2026, followed by a crash to 68,000 USD in Q2 due to liquidity tightening. Probability assessments show the likelihood of the three scenarios to be 30%, 45%, and 25% respectively, suggesting investors adopt a laddered accumulation strategy, buying in regions at 95,000, 82,000, and 70,000 USD.

Analysis of the Correlation Between Crypto Markets and Traditional Assets

It is worth noting that the 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index has dropped from 0.7 in September to the current 0.4, indicating that Crypto Assets are gradually breaking away from the shadow of traditional tech stocks. This decoupling phenomenon is partly due to Bitcoin's unique supply structure—78% of the addresses holding coins have not moved for over a year, reaching a record high. However, during periods of extreme risk aversion, all risk assets still exhibit synchronized downward trends. Investors should pay attention to the spread of U.S. high-yield corporate bonds; when the spread exceeds 500 basis points, Bitcoin typically faces greater selling pressure. Currently, the spread is at 380 basis points, which, although significantly wider than the 280 basis points at the beginning of the year, has not yet reached dangerous levels.

When technical indicators resonate with the macro environment, the warnings given by the market deserve serious attention. Bitcoin is currently at a crossroads, not only a choice of price direction but also the ultimate test of the resilience of decentralized assets in a tightening cycle. Those investors who can remain clear-headed in times of panic may be able to capture excess returns in the next cycle rotation.