Key Points:

• Analysts lower the probability of a rate cut in December.
• After the end of the US government shutdown, the XRP ETF may bring a large amount of capital to the market.
• As market sentiment continues to be sluggish, the current downtrend may soon push XRP down to $2.

XRP has fallen more than 5% in the past 24 hours and is currently trading around $2.4, with the entire cryptocurrency market starting off poorly this week.

During this period, long positions worth over $500 million were liquidated, with mainstream altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH) and BNB Coin (BNB) also recording similar declines, while other tokens like Sui (SUI) dropped by as much as 8%.

Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut last week as the market expected, the Fed Chairman stated that he is not certain that there will be another rate cut in December as analysts anticipate.

Before Jerome Powell made comments, the market's expectation for a rate cut in December was as high as 91.1%. At the time of writing this article, FedWatch data shows that this probability has dropped to 67.1%.

The upcoming ETF approval may help XRP recover

According to FXEmpire, recently, XRP received a short-term boost due to Evernorth launching a cryptocurrency fund of up to $1 billion. However, after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, market sentiment quickly deteriorated.

After experiencing a relatively calm weekend with initial signs of recovery, the market faced a sharp decline at the beginning of this week. This may be due to changes in predictions by market analysts, as well as potential impacts outlined in client reports regarding the “no interest rate cut” scenario in December.

At the same time, the only exchange-traded fund (ETF) currently providing some form of XRP spot exposure — REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) — still maintains assets under management of over $100 million.

Many other asset management companies, including CoinShares, 21Shares, and WisdomTree, are waiting for approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for their spot ETF products.

The U.S. government shutdown has now lasted for 34 days, delaying the approval process for these funds. However, this deadlock is likely to be temporary, and once it ends, it may open the floodgates for the approval of ETFs, including many XRP-related funds.

Recently, Bitwise successfully launched a Solana ETF with staking features, which quickly gained market favor. In just a few days, the ETF attracted $400 million in asset inflows, thanks to its enticing 7% annual staking rewards.

Although the XRP ETF may lack such staking features, it could still attract significant interest from retail investors who prefer to gain exposure to the token through regulated markets.

Latest Updates on Ripple

1. Acquire Hidden Road and launch Ripple Prime

• Acquisition Completed: Ripple completed the acquisition of multi-asset major broker Hidden Road in October.
• Brand Rebranding and Business Expansion: After the acquisition, Hidden Road was officially renamed Ripple Prime. The platform aims to become a one-stop service platform for institutional clients, providing comprehensive digital asset services including spot trading, financing, clearing, and risk management.
• Expansion into the US Market: The launch of Ripple Prime is an important step for Ripple in expanding its presence in the US institutional market. It allows US clients to engage in cross-margin trading of over-the-counter (OTC) spot positions, as well as futures and options trading listed on the CME, providing greater flexibility for institutions managing digital asset portfolios.

2. Deepening the Application of RLUSD Stablecoin

• Ecosystem Integration: The US dollar-backed stablecoin RLUSD launched by Ripple continues to deepen its application within the ecosystem. Multiple non-profit organizations, including World Central Kitchen, Water.org, and Mercy Corps Ventures, have announced the use of Ripple's payment solutions and its stablecoin for humanitarian aid and development projects, showcasing the practicality of RLUSD in the real world.

2. Focus on Technological Innovation and Regulation

• Privacy and Compliance Roadmap: Ripple's cryptographer J. Ayo Akinyele has proposed a privacy-first roadmap for XRPL (XRP Ledger), planning to leverage technologies such as zero-knowledge proofs (ZK proofs) and confidential tokens to make XRPL more attractive to institutions seeking innovation and trust, in order to support the development of tokenized real-world assets (RWA).
• OCC License Application: The market continues to pay attention to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)'s review results regarding Ripple's application for a U.S. chartered bank license, which is seen as an important step for Ripple on its path to compliance.

3. Market Performance and Expectations for the Swell Conference

• Price Volatility: Despite positive fundamental news, XRP's price experienced significant volatility and decline in late October due to macroeconomic factors (such as the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals) and a broader downturn in the cryptocurrency market.
• Swell Conference Expectations: The market has high expectations for the Ripple Swell 2025 conference to be held in November. The attendance of traditional financial giants such as BlackRock, Citi, Fidelity, and JPMorgan has sparked speculation about a potential XRP spot ETF or mainstream banks adopting Ripple technology.

If the bearish momentum strengthens, XRP may drop to 2 dollars.

From the 4-hour chart, we can see that XRP has formed a downtrend over the past few weeks. If bearish momentum accelerates, the token may eventually drop to $2.1 or lower.

(Source: TradingView)

Currently, the key support level to watch is $2.25—XRP has recently rebounded strongly from this level twice. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below the 14-period moving average, indicating that the downtrend is still ongoing.

Unless there is a widespread panic in the market, we expect to see XRP rebound at this support level. However, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains severely depressed, with the fear and greed index currently at 36, below the 30-day high of 62.

The market probability leans towards XRP dipping below $2 at some point. Given the long-term outlook for cryptocurrencies remains positive, this temporary weakness may be seen as a good opportunity to buy XRP for investors who believe the market will rally strongly before the end of the year, representing a potential cryptocurrency investment opportunity.