Gate Latest Crypto Assets Market Analysis (October 31): Bitcoin falls below 110,000 USD, Fear & Greed Index at 29 points.

Gate's latest Crypto Assets market analysis shows that Bitcoin is currently priced at $109,700, with a 24-hour pump of 1.28%, oscillating near the key position of $110,000. In terms of altcoins, CATCH experienced a big pump of 62.17%. The Crypto Assets Fear and Greed Index reports 29 points, indicating a “fear” stage, with investor sentiment cautious but not significantly pessimistic.

Market Analysis of BTC and ETH

Bitcoin is currently priced at 109,700 USD, with a 24-hour increase of 1.28%, indicating a consolidation trend. 110,000 USD is the most critical psychological and technical level at present; this integer threshold is not only a psychological defense line for investors but also a resistance level that has been tested multiple times without effective breakthrough. The continuous bullish outlook from institutions is the most important fundamental support in the current analysis of the crypto assets market, with the amount of coins held by listed companies breaking through 1 million coins, marking a trend of corporate allocation of Bitcoin. The continued buying by listed companies such as Strategy, Tesla, and Block provides a stable demand foundation for the market.

In terms of BTC liquidity, the 24-hour trading volume is nearly 15.5 billion USD, indicating good liquidity. This level of trading volume shows that market participation remains active enough to support large transactions without causing significant slippage. The key support level is at 106,000 USD, which has been tested multiple times recently for support; if it falls below this level, it will open a downward channel. The key resistance level is at 112,000 USD, and breaking through this level will confirm a new round of upward momentum.

Ethereum is currently priced at 3,846 USD, with a 24-hour increase of 1.09%, oscillating around 4,300 USD. The most noteworthy aspect of the crypto assets market analysis is that ETH's spot trading volume has surpassed BTC for the first time, which is an important signal of market structure change. The surpassing of trading volume typically indicates that funds are rotating from Bitcoin to the Ethereum ecosystem, which often heralds the beginning of altcoin season. The increased activity in the ecosystem is reflected in the rising DeFi locked value, the recovery of NFT trading, and the increased usage of Layer 2 networks.

Overview of Key Price Levels for BTC and ETH

BTC Key Support: 106,000 USD | Key Resistance: 112,000 USD

ETH Key Support: $3,700 | Key Resistance: $4,000

In terms of ETH liquidity, the 24-hour trading volume is approximately 7.3 billion USD, with sufficient trading depth. Although the absolute value is lower than BTC, considering the lower price of ETH, this trading volume indicates that market attention towards Ethereum is rising. The key support level is at 3,700 USD, which is the bottom area of the recent pullback and a price point where significant buying interest is concentrated. The key resistance level is at 4,000 USD, which is an important psychological barrier, and a breakout will open the path to historical highs.

In terms of arbitrage opportunities, the price differences of mainstream coins are relatively small, and arbitrage opportunities are limited. This indicates a higher market efficiency, as prices between major exchanges have already been fully arbitraged, with no obvious cross-exchange price differences. For ordinary investors, this means that regardless of which exchange they trade on, the prices obtained are relatively fair.

alts big pump, Fear and Greed Index Interpretation

（Source: Gate）

In the analysis of Crypto Assets market trends, the performance of alts is particularly eye-catching. CATCH is priced at 0.0099 USD, with a big pump of 62.17% in 24 hours, indicating that there may be significant news or concentrated capital inflow for this coin. COAI3S is priced at 21.95 USD, with a 23.56% increase in 24 hours. As a leveraged token, its performance amplifies the gains of the underlying asset. TRUMP5L is priced at 0.12 USD, with a 19.8% increase in 24 hours. The rise of these thematic tokens is often related to political news or community sentiment.

The collective explosion of alts often signals an increase in market risk appetite. When investors take profits from mainstream coins like BTC and ETH, they typically look for higher-yielding altcoin opportunities. This pattern of capital rotation has historically indicated the arrival of altcoin season multiple times. However, the high volatility of alts also comes with high risk; a coin that surges 60% in a single day may just as easily plummet 50% the next day, so investors need to be particularly cautious.

The Fear and Greed Index reports 29 points, indicating a “fear” stage. This is an extremely crucial emotional indicator in cryptocurrency market analysis. The Fear and Greed Index ranges from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), and 29 points show that market sentiment leans towards fear, but has not yet reached the level of extreme fear. Historical data shows that when the Fear and Greed Index is below 30, it often presents a better buying opportunity, as the market's excessive pessimism tends to create chances for undervalued assets.

Market sentiment is cautious but not significantly pessimistic, and this state is reflected in trading behavior: investors are hesitant to make large purchases but there has been no panic selling. This balanced state often indicates that the market is building a bottom or waiting for a clear directional signal. Volatility is at a moderate level, and in the short term, market fluctuations may increase, meaning that investors should be prepared to deal with drastic price swings.

Historically, fear stages are often opportunities rather than risks. Buffett's famous saying “Be fearful when others are greedy” applies equally in the crypto market. When the Fear and Greed Index is below 30, the probability of Bitcoin rising in the subsequent 30 days exceeds 70%. This contrarian investment strategy requires strong psychological quality and ample capital preparation, but it often yields excess returns.

Short-term Operation Strategy and Position Management

The operational suggestions for analyzing the market of Crypto Assets are based on the current technical and sentiment configurations. The entry points are chosen around BTC 106,000 and ETH 3,700, both of which are key support levels that provide relatively favorable risk-reward ratios. The advantage of buying near the support level is that if the support fails, one can quickly stop loss, while if the support holds, there is a larger potential for a pump.

In terms of take profit and stop loss settings, BTC is set with a 10% stop loss, meaning it will exit if it falls below $98,700. ETH is set with a 15% stop loss, meaning it will exit if it falls below $3,145. The wider stop loss space for Ethereum is due to its volatility typically being higher than that of Bitcoin, and a too tight stop loss may be triggered by normal fluctuations. Regarding take profit, BTC can set $112,000 as the first target, while ETH sets $4,000 as the first target. After reaching the target, a portion can be taken as profit, while the remaining position continues to be held for a higher target.

Position management suggests that 20-30% of total funds should be allocated to Crypto Assets, which is a conservative strategy based on the principle of risk diversification. As a high volatility asset, cryptocurrency should not occupy the main portion of an investment portfolio. A 20-30% allocation allows investors to participate in the potential gains of the crypto market while not compromising overall financial security due to extreme fluctuations. The risk rating is medium risk, and it is recommended to build positions in batches rather than a one-time heavy investment, which can help to lower costs during price drops and also achieve reasonable returns when prices rise.

Key Points for Short-term Trading Strategy

Entry Price: Buy in batches around BTC 106,000, ETH 3,700.

Stop Loss Setting: BTC 10% (approximately 98,700), ETH 15% (approximately 3,145 USD)

Position Ratio: Total capital 20-30%, with BTC 60% and ETH 40%

Operation Rhythm: Build positions in 3-5 phases to avoid heavy loading at once.

Mid-term Layout and Key Catalysts

The trend judgment for mid-term investment layout is a fluctuating upward movement, and the analysis of the Crypto Assets market adopts a cautious bullish stance. This judgment is based on several key factors: continuous buying by institutions provides demand support, ETF capital inflows remain positive, and there has not yet been a clear top formation in the technical aspect. The allocation suggestion is 60% BTC and 40% ETH, with this allocation leaning towards Bitcoin due to its relatively lower volatility and higher institutional recognition.

Key nodes need to focus on two dimensions: SEC regulatory policies and institutional investment trends. The SEC's approval attitude towards Crypto Assets ETFs and the regulatory intensity towards exchanges and project parties will directly affect market sentiment. Institutional investment trends include changes in holdings of listed companies, inflows and outflows of ETF funds, as well as research reports and allocation suggestions from Wall Street investment banks. This information can be obtained from public disclosures, on-chain data, and news reports.

The situational analysis suggests maintaining a flexible strategy and controlling positions. The market outlook indicates a 60% probability of an upward fluctuation and a 40% probability of adjustment. This probability distribution means that while the likelihood of an increase is greater, the risk of adjustment still exists, and one should not be blindly optimistic. Catalyst events include changes in institutional investment and regulatory policies, with the time frame expected to maintain the current pattern within 1 to 3 months.

Core risk identification includes systemic risk (global economic uncertainty), individual coin risk (regulatory policy changes), liquidity risk (market events may impact), and regulatory risk (SEC tightening regulations). Although these risks may not materialize in the short term, investors must be psychologically prepared and have contingency plans. Systemic risks, such as a global economic recession or financial crisis, can lead to a simultaneous decline in all risky assets. Regulatory risks, like the SEC suddenly tightening regulations on a certain type of token, may trigger a big pump in specific coins.

From a time frame of 1 to 3 months, the cryptocurrency market analysis believes that the current pattern can be maintained. This means that the possibility of BTC fluctuating in the range of 100,000 to 120,000 USD and ETH fluctuating in the range of 3,500 to 4,500 USD is the highest. During this period, investors should adopt a high sell low buy wave strategy, rather than chasing pumps and crashes.