XRP Today's News: Steadily approaching the $3 mark, XRP's market capitalization briefly surpassed BNB, returning to the Top 4.

Driven by hopes of reaching a framework agreement on Sino-U.S. trade and market bets on the Fed's consecutive rate cuts in October and December, the price of XRP has climbed back above $2.65, recovering from the low point on October 10. Institutional demand has reached record levels, with the nominal trading volume of CME XRP futures surpassing $26.9 billion since May 2025. XRP's market capitalization surpassed BNB over the weekend, regaining the 4th position globally, and the strong rebound with four consecutive bullish days indicates that macro favourable information is translating into strong market momentum.

1. Macroeconomic Dominance: The Carnival of Risk Assets Amidst China-U.S. Trade and Fed Rate Cuts

The strong rebound in XRP prices is closely related to the positive developments of two major macro events, which together have driven the demand for risk assets.

Framework of the China-U.S. trade agreement reached

• Market Consensus: Multiple media outlets reported that the trade negotiation representatives from China and the U.S. reached a consensus on the framework of a trade agreement on Sunday, October 26, greatly boosting the demand for risk assets.
• Price Reaction: XRP price has broken above the 2.65 USD mark for the first time since its flash crash to 0.7773 USD on October 10.
• Related Assets: Affected by this news, Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke through $115,000. Safe-haven assets like gold fell 1% to $4,071 in the early morning session on Monday, October 27.
• Leaders Meeting: U.S. President Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi on Thursday, October 30, which may end the protracted U.S.-China trade war.

Fed interest rate cut expectations strengthen

• Inflation Data: The development of China-U.S. trade coincided with the U.S. inflation data for September being lower than expected, further supporting the market's bets that the Fed will cut interest rates consecutively in October and December.
• Market Sentiment: BCR Market Insight commented that “The US CPI is lower than expected and the occurrence of the China-US trade agreement - risk sentiment is high this week. This is very positive for the end of the year.”

2. Institutional Demand Surges: CME Futures Hit New Highs and ETF Momentum Strong

Favourable Information in the macroeconomy aligns with the surge in institutional investor demand for XRP, collectively providing strong bullish “tailwinds” for XRP.

Derivatives market hits record high

• CME Futures Volume: The notional trading volume of XRP futures and options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has reached $26.9 billion since May 2025, reportedly setting a historical record.
• Demand Signal: The surge in futures volume indicates strong institutional demand for XRP, suggesting that there will be huge demand once the XRP-spot ETF is launched.

Institutional Cooperation and ETF Progress

XRP price has risen for four consecutive days, benefiting from several key developments:

• Ripple Prime: The completion of the Hidden Road transaction and the rebranding to Ripple Prime is expected to increase the utilization of XRP in mainstream financial sectors.
• Evernorth Reserve: Ripple-backed Evernorth has announced plans to raise over $1 billion to build the world's largest XRP treasury reserve.
• Rex-Osprey XRP ETF: The asset under management (AUM) for this ETF has reportedly surpassed 100 million dollars in its first month of trading.

3. Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis: Regaining the Fourth Position in market capitalization

XRP has surpassed BNB in this round of rebound, reclaiming the fourth position in market capitalization, indicating that its market position is consolidating.

Retail investors selling and reverse indicators

• Santiment Analysis: Market intelligence platform Santiment observed that when the price of XRP was around $2.60, there was a rise in retail investors' “fear, uncertainty, and doubt” (FUD) on social media, indicating that small wallets were selling off.
• Reverse buy signal: Santiment points out that in the price range of 2 to 3 dollars, the crowd predicts that XRP below 2 dollars is a buy signal, while above 3 dollars is a sell signal. Typically, market trends are contrary to retail sentiment, indicating a positive outlook.

Key Technical Levels

(Source: TradingView)

• Moving Average: The four consecutive bullish candles have allowed XRP to break above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the token is still below the 50-day EMA, indicating a bearish bias in the short term.
  • Technical resistance level: 50-day EMA is at $2.6926.
  • Technical support level: The 200-day EMA is at $2.6123.
• Trading Advice: Bulls need to consistently break through $2.80 to target the psychological level of $3.0. The risk for bears lies in falling below $2.62, which would expose the support level at $2.35.

4. Outlook: Macroeconomic and Regulatory Catalysts

In the upcoming trading days, the following events may determine the recent price trend:

Development of China-US trade situation; U.S. Senate vote; XRP spot ETF (delayed or launched) and BlackRock's position in iShares XRP Trust; Blue chip companies' interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset; Regulatory Milestone: Ripple applies for a U.S. chartered bank license, the “Market Structure Act,” and SWIFT-related news may also drive recent price trends;

Bearish Scenario: Risk Below $2.62

BlackRock has downplayed its plans for an XRP spot ETF; The extension of the US government shutdown has delayed the launch of the XRP spot ETF; The U.S. Senate opposes cryptocurrency-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Act. Blue-chip companies have rejected the plan to use XRP as a treasury reserve asset. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has postponed or rejected Ripple's application for a chartered bank license in the United States; SWIFT maintains its market share in the global remittance field, limiting Ripple's market access; These unfavorable events could push XRP below $2.62, exposing the support level at $2.35. If it breaks below, $2.20 will become the next key support level.

Bullish Scenario: XRP is Poised for a Path Towards 3 Dollars

The US and China signed a trade agreement; The U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill; BlackRock submitted the S-1 application for the iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approved the XRP spot ETF; Blue-chip companies increase their holdings of XRP as treasury reserves, while Main Street integrates Ripple's technology. Ripple has obtained a US chartered banking license, and the market structure bill has made progress in Congress. These bullish scenarios could drive the XRP price up to $2.80. A sustained breakthrough of $2.80 would have the bulls targeting the psychological level of $3.0.

Conclusion

XRP benefits from the macro “tailwind” of favourable information from Sino-US trade and bets on Fed interest rate cuts, while the fervent accumulation of institutions in the CME futures market provides strong fundamental support. Although the technical aspect still needs to break through the resistance of the 50-day EMA, positive catalysts at the regulatory and institutional levels are expected to further solidify its position in the global financial market. Investors should closely monitor the macro dynamics in Washington and Beijing.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.