Overview of Monad (MON) Investment Value Analysis: The Breakthrough Path of High-Performance EVM Public Chains.

1 Overview: The Rise of the New Generation Ethereum Challenger

Against the backdrop of intensified competition among multi-layer public chains in 2025, Monad (MON), as a high-performance EVM-compatible Layer 1 blockchain based on parallel execution, is becoming the market focus with its groundbreaking technological architecture and strong capital support. Monad aims to address the long-standing scalability bottleneck of Ethereum by achieving a throughput of up to 10,000 TPS through its unique parallelized EVM design, while maintaining complete compatibility with Ethereum bytecode, providing developers and users with a "seamless migration but performance doubling" experience.

The project is built by a team with a background in traditional high-frequency trading. CEO Keone Hon and CTO James Hunsaker both come from Jump Trading and have extensive experience in high-frequency trading and low-latency system optimization. This professional background provides strong endorsement for Monad's technical roadmap, allowing it to stand out among many "Ethereum killers." As of the eve of the airdrop in October 2025, Monad has raised over $240 million in funding, with investors including top venture capital firms such as Paradigm and Electric Capital, achieving a valuation of $3 billion, demonstrating strong confidence from institutional investors in its technical path and business prospects.

The Monad testnet phase has achieved remarkable data performance, processing approximately 255 million successful transactions with an average success rate of 98.18%. The number of unique addresses has surpassed 310 million, and the peak TPS has reached 5,200. These figures validate the feasibility and stability of its parallel EVM architecture. With the MON token airdrop officially launching on October 14, Monad is迎来 its key milestone in ecological development, providing investors with an investment sample to gain insight into the evolution of next-generation public chain technology.

2 Fundamental Analysis of the Ecosystem

2.1 Technical Advantages and Competitive Positioning

The core technical architecture of Monad represents the development direction of the next generation of EVM-compatible blockchains, with innovations reflected on multiple levels:

Parallel Execution Engine: The most prominent technical feature of Monad is its use of an optimistic parallel execution strategy, allowing the network to handle multiple unrelated transactions simultaneously, rather than the traditional sequential execution model of the EVM. This design assumes there are no conflicts between transactions, and if conflicts are detected, it re-executes in serial, thus achieving a qualitative leap in performance on modern hardware. Compared to non-EVM compatible chains like Solana, Monad achieves comparable performance while maintaining 100% bytecode-level EVM compatibility, meaning that Ethereum developers can seamlessly migrate their smart contracts and dApps without needing to rewrite code or learn a new programming language.

Decoupling Consensus from Execution: Monad separates the consensus confirmation of transactions from state execution through its innovative MonadBFT consensus mechanism (based on the improved high-performance BFT consensus algorithm HotStuff), allowing the execution phase to utilize the entire block time for processing, thereby avoiding the bottleneck of interleaved consensus and execution in traditional designs. This pipelined architecture significantly improves hardware utilization and overall throughput while maintaining full compatibility with Ethereum development tools and infrastructure.

Optimized State Storage: Monad has introduced MonadDB—a customized database designed specifically for blockchain state access. Unlike traditional blockchains that use generic databases, MonadDB is deeply optimized for blockchain workloads, further enhancing execution efficiency through more efficient state storage and retrieval mechanisms.

From the performance metrics, the Monad testnet has achieved a block time of 400 milliseconds and a finality of 800 milliseconds, with a target throughput of up to 10,000 TPS, which is an order of magnitude improvement compared to Ethereum's approximately 10-15 TPS. This performance metric ranks among the top even in the highly competitive high-performance public chain arena, providing an ideal underlying infrastructure for application scenarios that require high throughput and low latency, such as gaming and high-frequency trading DeFi protocols.

Table: Comparison of Monad and Major Competing Public Chain Performance Metrics

Comparison of Monad and Main Competing Public Chain Performance Indicators

2.2 Current Status of Ecological Development

The Monad ecosystem is currently in a phase of rapid expansion, with over 280 projects deployed or planned for deployment on its testnet, accumulating ecological financing of $1.32 billion. These projects cover multiple tracks including DeFi, infrastructure, gaming, social, and NFTs, forming a nascent and diversified application ecosystem.

The DeFi field is a key development direction of the Monad ecosystem and has attracted a number of high-quality projects. In terms of liquid staking protocols, aPriori (which has raised $10 million, led by Pantera Capital), Magma (which has completed a $3.9 million seed round), and Kintsu (which has completed a $4 million seed round) constitute a diversified LSD solution. In the decentralized exchange sector, on-chain order book DEX Kuru (led by Electric Capital) and perpetual contract protocol Narwhal Finance provide a high-performance trading experience. For lending protocols, well-known projects such as Euler Finance and Curvance are laid out to provide basic credit services for the ecosystem.

In terms of infrastructure and tools, Monad actively collaborates with mainstream cross-chain protocols, including LayerZero and Wormhole, to ensure multi-chain interoperability and asset cross-chain convenience. Additionally, projects specifically designed for Monad, such as Monorail (WMON wrapped) and Bean Exchange (a hybrid order book - oracle Perp DEX supported by Pyth Network), further enrich the infrastructure stack.

Despite some early ecological projects turning to other chains for deployment due to delays in the mainnet launch (such as Kintsu turning to Hyperliquid), the ecological vitality is rapidly recovering as the airdrop date is confirmed and the mainnet launch approaches. From user growth data, Monad's testnet shows a significant "spike and drop" characteristic: active wallets in March were 86.92 million, which surged to 215 million in April, then dropped to 11.28 million in May, and stabilized at around 4 million from June to August. It is worth noting that although the number of active wallets has decreased, the monthly transaction count per wallet increased from 6 transactions in March to 111 transactions in August, indicating a significant increase in the usage depth of retained users.

2.3 Token Economic Model Analysis

The MON token is the native functional token of the Monad network, with a total supply of 100 billion tokens. According to existing information, the token allocation plan includes: 20% for the ecological fund, 15% for the team (2 years of linear release after a 6-month lock-up), 10% for investors (similar lock-up conditions), and the remaining portion is expected to be used for liquidity, community airdrops, and other network incentives. This relatively large total supply is not uncommon in public chain projects; the key is to look at the circulating market value and the demand pressure brought by actual application scenarios.

The core functions of the MON token include:

Network Gas Fee Payment: All transactions and smart contract operations executed on the Monad network require the consumption of MON as Gas fees;

Staking and Network Security: Monad uses a PoS consensus mechanism, allowing holders to participate in network validation and earn rewards by staking MON;

Governance Participation: It is expected that MON holders will be able to participate in the governance process of future network upgrades and ecological decisions.

Although the complete details of the token economics have not been fully disclosed, the project team has hinted at introducing a fee-burning mechanism to combat inflationary pressure, which could be a key design to balance the large total supply with value stability. From the release rhythm, the tokens of the team and investors have clear lock-up periods and linear release arrangements, which help to mitigate the selling pressure in the initial listing phase. However, investors still need to closely monitor the specific circulation volume and future unlocking schedule after the token generation event.

In terms of airdrop distribution, Monad has adopted an innovative time-limited task-based airdrop model. Unlike the traditional method of directly claiming after eligibility verification, Monad requires users to complete certain actions within a specific time window to qualify for the airdrop. This design not only enhances the participation of real users and the quality of project interaction but may also dynamically adjust the actual airdrop quantity based on task completion rates. The community speculates that possible task types may include binding social media accounts to assess account quality, interacting with ecosystem projects, or participating in initial staking, among others. While this airdrop mechanism increases the uncertainty for users in acquiring tokens, it helps to filter and reward participants who truly contribute to the ecosystem.

3 Technical Analysis and Development Forecast

3.1 Price Trends and Market Sentiment

Although the MON token has not yet officially been listed for trading, the pre-trading market has provided some price discovery functionality. According to data from the AEVO platform, the pre-market price of MON surged to $0.14 shortly after the airdrop claim time was announced, and then retraced to around $0.117 for consolidation. This price fluctuation reflects the market's strong interest and expectations for the project, while also showing the price uncertainty in the absence of actual circulation. From a market sentiment perspective, the optimistic expectations before the airdrop claim and the potential "sell the news" correction that may occur after the token is officially listed create a typical psychological game in the market.

Traders on the decentralized perpetual futures exchange Hyperliquid have listed the MON-USD perpetual contract. Based on the trading price, Monad's fully diluted valuation has been consistently between $13 billion and $18.9 billion a few days before the airdrop claim. The MON token contract has been trading within the indicative price range, recently noted to be close to $0.12 to $0.15, which supports billions of dollars in FDV.

From the perspective of trading volume, the active trading on pre-trading platforms like AEVO indicates that MON has attracted considerable attention from traders, which typically suggests that there may be high initial liquidity and price volatility after the official listing. Considering that the Monad testnet phase has accumulated nearly 5.5 million active users, even if only a small portion of them become holders and traders of MON, it would be sufficient to create substantial trading activity in the early stages of the listing.

3.2 Technical Indicator Analysis

Based on the project's fundamentals and market sentiment, we can identify several key price levels: the range of $0.10-0.12 may form an initial psychological support zone, while the range of $0.15-0.18 may become an early resistance band.

According to on-chain data analysis, the transaction success rate during the Monad testnet phase reached 98.18%, with an average block creation rate of approximately 98.75%, indicating that the network maintained stable consensus efficiency under high-performance goals. Although these technical indicators do not directly predict token prices, they reflect the technical health of the network itself, providing fundamental support for the long-term value of the token.

In terms of market sentiment indicators, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 34 (extreme fear) due to macro factors before the listing of MON, which may suppress the price performance in the early stages of listing. However, judging by the activity in the MON pre-trading market, the project-specific optimism seems to have offset the negative sentiment from the macro market to some extent.

3.3 Price Prediction and Target Range

Based on the technological potential of Monad, the current state of ecological development, and the market competition landscape, we propose the following three scenario analyses for the price trend of the MON token:

Bull Market Scenario: Price range between $0.25 and $0.35, FDV of $25-35 billion, key driving factors include better-than-expected mainnet launch, ecosystem TVL exceeding $1 billion, and overall market recovery;

Benchmark Scenario: Price range between $0.13 and $0.20, FDV is $13-20 billion, key driving factors include the planned advancement of the mainnet launch, steady expansion of the ecosystem, and stable market sentiment;

Bear Market Scenario: Price range is $0.08-0.12, FDV is $8-12 billion, key driving factors include mainnet delays, heavy airdrop selling pressure, and further market downturn.

In a bull market scenario, Monad's narrative—claiming to have 10 times the EVM speed and being fully compatible with Ethereum—perfectly aligns with the ongoing trends of scaling solutions and performance-focused chains. With a strong technological foundation and ample funding, in a hype-driven environment, $MON could easily become the "next Solana moment." Assuming a price range between $0.25 and $0.35, $MON's FDV could reach between $25 billion and $35 billion, consistent with $SUI and even approaching $HYPE levels.

In the baseline scenario, prices often reflect fundamentals rather than pure speculation. The value of Monad will be supported by its developer ecosystem, infrastructure maturity, and upcoming mainnet milestones, rather than speculative frenzy. While excitement still exists, investors are more selective, with valuations stabilizing near realistic benchmarks, such as $TON. Assuming a price range between $0.13 and $0.2, the FDV of $MON will be around $13 billion to $20 billion, comparable to the early performance of $TON.

In a bear market scenario, liquidity is thin and capital rotation slows down. Even projects with strong fundamentals face selling pressure from early participants or private placement investors seeking capital preservation. Although Monad has strong fundamentals, its price performance at the time of listing may be suppressed due to the overall market risk-averse sentiment.

4 Summary of Opportunities and Risks

4.1 Bullish Catalysts

Technical Advantages and Performance Breakthrough: Monad's parallel EVM architecture achieves an order of magnitude speed improvement while maintaining full EVM compatibility. This technological breakthrough is expected to attract dApp developers who require high performance to migrate. If the mainnet can actually achieve the performance target of 10,000 TPS after launch, it will significantly enhance market confidence and provide strong support for token prices.

Rapid Growth of the Ecosystem: The ecosystem with over 280 projects and a cumulative ecological financing of $1.32 billion demonstrates the developer community's recognition of the Monad technology path. As these projects gradually migrate from the testnet to the mainnet, it will bring real user traffic and TVL growth, creating a positive cycle of token demand and use cases.

Airdrop Effect and Community Building: Adopting a time-limited task-based airdrop model helps to filter out real users instead of airdrop hunters, establishing a healthier initial distribution structure for tokens. If the community remains active and continues to engage in ecological interactions after the airdrop, it will create a strong network effect, enhancing Monad's soft power in the competition among public chains.

Institutional Funding and Background Support: With cumulative funding exceeding $240 million and support from top venture capital firms such as Paradigm and Electric Capital, the project not only has sufficient financial backing for its development but also lays the groundwork for liquidity and market confidence post-listing. These institutional investors typically have a long-term perspective, which can help mitigate the volatility of tokens in the secondary market.

Market Narrative and Positioning Advantage: Monad precisely targets the "high performance + fully EVM compatible" niche market, which has strong appeal in the current multi-chain landscape. As one of the few public chains that can meet both performance requirements and developer experience simultaneously, Monad is expected to capture significant value during the expansion of the Ethereum ecosystem.

4.2 Risk Factors

Mainnet Launch Execution Risks: Although the testnet has performed impressively, there remains uncertainty about whether the mainnet can be launched as scheduled by the end of 2025 and deliver on its promised performance targets. Historically, several well-known public chain projects have encountered technical issues during their mainnet launch phases; if Monad faces similar situations, it will severely undermine market confidence.

Token economic details are unclear: Currently, the economic model details of the MON token have not been fully disclosed, especially regarding the specific designs of the inflation control mechanism, staking yield, and governance rights. If the final plan cannot effectively balance the interests of all parties, it may lead to insufficient long-term value accumulation capability of the token.

Market Competition Intensifies: Monad is facing fierce competition from other high-performance public chains such as MegaETH and Hyperliquid, as well as the continuous evolution of Ethereum itself through its Layer 2 roadmap. With limited developer attention and user traffic, whether it can stand out in the competition remains uncertain.

Airdrop Selling Pressure and Unlocking Pressure: Since airdropped tokens usually have no lock-up period, recipients may sell the tokens immediately after receiving them, causing price pressure in the early stages of listing. In addition, team and investor tokens will begin to be released linearly after a 6-month lock-up period, and this potential supply may create ongoing pressure on the price.

Adoption Barriers Due to Technical Complexity: Although Monad maintains EVM compatibility, its parallel execution model may require specific optimizations of existing smart contracts to fully leverage performance advantages. If the toolchain and developer experience are not sufficiently refined, it may slow down the pace of ecosystem development.

Impact of Macroeconomic Environment: The cryptocurrency market as a whole remains highly correlated with macro factors, and external variables such as U.S. monetary policy and regulatory dynamics may overshadow project-specific fundamentals, leading to price fluctuations that deviate from value.

5 Conclusion

Monad, with its innovative parallel EVM architecture, strong team background, and rapidly developing ecosystem, has undoubtedly become one of the most attention-grabbing public chain projects by 2025. Its technological positioning accurately addresses the pain points of the current Ethereum ecosystem—achieving a magnitude of performance improvement while maintaining compatibility. If this value proposition is validated on the mainnet, it is expected to occupy a unique position in the multi-layer public chain competition. From an investment perspective, the MON token may face valuation pressure during the initial listing phase due to high market expectations, but its long-term value will ultimately depend on the actual performance after the mainnet launch, the state of ecosystem development, and the rationality of the token economic model.

For cautious investors, it is recommended to adopt a phased entry strategy, prioritizing key variables such as the progress of the mainnet launch, the migration status of the first batch of dApps, and the initial circulating market capitalization. Although Monad shows the potential to become the next generation of public blockchain leader, the winner-take-all competition landscape in the public chain track means that investing in a single project still carries high risks. In the rapidly evolving field of cryptocurrency, where technology is advancing quickly and the competitive landscape is changing, whether Monad can truly achieve a "breakthrough" still needs to be proven through the implementation of its mainnet, ecological prosperity, and user growth to demonstrate its long-term value.

ETH-2.34%
SOL-1.62%
HYPE-2.87%
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