Is the Bitcoin Supercycle about to arrive? Will BTC reach 150,000 dollars?

Source: Bitcoin Magazine; Compiled by: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

Bitcoin is expected to soar in 2025, sparking speculation about a historic Bitcoin supercycle. After the turmoil at the beginning of the year, new momentum, a revival in market sentiment, and bullish indicators have analysts pondering: Are we about to reenact the Bitcoin bull market of 2017? This Bitcoin price analysis explores cycle comparisons, investor behavior, and trends among long-term holders to assess the likelihood of an explosive phase in this round of the cryptocurrency market cycle.

Comparison of the 2025 Bitcoin Cycle with Previous Bull Markets

The recent surge in Bitcoin prices has exceeded people’s expectations. According to the “Bitcoin Growth Since Cycle Low” chart, despite facing macro challenges and corrections, Bitcoin’s trend is highly consistent with the cycle trends of 2016-2017 and 2020-2021.

Figure 1: The bullish price trend of Bitcoin in 2025 is similar to the previous cycle trends.

Historically, the peaks of Bitcoin market cycles typically occur about 1100 days after the troughs. The current cycle has lasted for approximately 900 days, suggesting that there may still be several hundred days of potential explosive growth left for Bitcoin’s price. But can investor behavior and market mechanisms support the arrival of the Bitcoin supercycle in 2025?

Bitcoin Investor Behavior: Echoes of the 2017 Bull Market

To measure the sentiment of cryptocurrency investors, the two-year rolling MVRV-Z score provides key insights. This advanced metric takes into account lost tokens, illiquid supply, the growing presence of ETFs and institutional holdings, as well as changes in the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders.

Last year, when the price of Bitcoin reached around $73,000, the MVRV-Z score peaked at 3.39 — a high level, but not unprecedented. A correction followed, mirroring the mid-cycle consolidation seen in 2017. Notably, several high score peaks were observed before the final parabolic rebound of the Bitcoin cycle in 2017.

Figure 2: The MVRV-Z score is similar to the trend of the Bitcoin bull market in 2017.

Using the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API for inter-cycle Bitcoin analysis, it has been found that its correlation with the 2013 double peak cycle is as high as 91.5%. There have been two significant highs so far—one occurring before the halving ($74,000) and one occurring after the halving (over $100,000). The third all-time high could signify the first occurrence of a three-peak bull market for Bitcoin, which may indicate a Bitcoin supercycle.

Figure 3: Cross-cycle behavioral correlation using rolling MVRV-Z scores and price action.

The 2017 cycle showed a behavioral correlation of 58.6%, while the investor behavior similarity in 2021 was lower, but the correlation with Bitcoin price trends was about 75%.

Long-term Bitcoin holders show strong confidence

The trend of holding coins for over a year shows that even with price increases, the proportion of Bitcoin that has not moved for a year or more continues to rise—this is rare in a bull market and reflects the strong confidence of long-term holders.

Figure 4: The change rate of the holding coin wait-and-see wave for over a year indicates that the market is confident about the future Bitcoin price.

Historically, a sharp rise in the rate of holding coins indicates an important bottom, while a sharp decline marks a top. Currently, this indicator is at a neutral turning point, far from reaching a peak distribution, suggesting that long-term Bitcoin investors expect prices to rise significantly.

Bitcoin Super Cycle or Further Consolidation?

Can Bitcoin replicate the exciting parabolic rise of 2017? It is possible, but this cycle may pave a unique path that blends historical patterns with the dynamics of the modern cryptocurrency market.

Figure 5: The exponential growth repeating the Bitcoin price of 2017 may be ambitious.

We may be approaching the third major peak of this cycle — a first in Bitcoin’s history. Whether this will trigger a comprehensive melt-up of the Bitcoin super cycle remains uncertain, but key indicators suggest that BTC is far from peaking. Supply is tight, long-term holders remain steadfast, and demand continues to rise, largely due to the growth of stablecoins, institutional Bitcoin investments, and ETF liquidity.

Conclusion: Can Bitcoin Welcome a Rebound to $150,000?

While it may be tempting to make a direct comparison of Bitcoin to the situations in 2017 or 2013, Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset. As a market that is becoming increasingly mature and institutionalized, its behavior is evolving, but the potential for explosive growth in Bitcoin still exists.

The historical cyclical correlation of Bitcoin remains high, investor behavior is healthy, and technical indicators suggest upward potential. With no obvious signs of capitulation, profit-taking, or macroeconomic weakness, the momentum of Bitcoin’s price increase is poised to take off. Whether this will lead to a rebound of $150,000 or even higher, the Bitcoin bull market of 2025 could go down in history.