Gumg

Thoughts on Bitcoin, Iran, Trump, Stocks, and price targets:
Bitcoin can bottom in Q3 despite being in consensus, because there will be something driving fear in the market at the time. Humans are great at predicting outcomes but not at acting upon them.
In the short term, I am in the camp of $80K soon if there is any sign of de-escalation, although there aren't many signs of it, and I also wonder what de-escalation will look like. Iran can monetize the Straight of Hormuz indefinitely, even if the US scales back its efforts.
A prolonged conflict is Iran's best outcome because it is the most de

Crypto '21 vs Crypto '26
ETH and ALTS have rightfully lost dominance. The market can't sustain bad tokenomics and market manipulation
Last year showed us that stocks can have shitcoin price action. Maybe next cycle we'll see the same for real businesses in crypto

the bitcoin outperformance may have been carried solely by saylor and $strc
today was the dividend payment day so people are selling STRC
since saylor can only print money with STRC at $100, he can't raise anything today
dividend days will be one of the best tradable events especially if we continue ranging

bullish on $SOL here
it has been making higher lows and compressing at the $90 resistance
this is highly dependent on bitcoin breaking out so there's that risk
I bought here at just under $90, if I'm wrong I'm wrong but happy with the R/R

No one, and I mean no one, buys the bottom and holds to ATHs
So what if you bought 50% above every BTC bottom, and waited 12 months?
→ +259% average return
→ +146% median return
You don't have to buy the bottom.
The most important thing is to buy when Bitcoin is *still* cheap.

if you're debating a move to portugal remember:
pros:
- 0% tax on longterm crypto gains (held >365 days)
- sunniest country in europe
- ocean is always a few minutes away
- no missiles flying over you, ever
- amazing food
cons:
- very expensive housing and rents
- expensive groceries, restaurants getting there
- bad, slow public services
- horrible bureaucracy for businesses
overall it's a 10/10 if you are financially stable

You have the Iran president apologizing to gulf nations and the IRGC says fuck you and continues to attack everyone
The US/Israel are attacking Iran's Oil facilities and the straight of hormuz activity is dropping hard
Stocks are still pricing in a Trump TACO but Iran may not let it happen cause chaos is the most painful scenario for the US

At what % is the market pricing in a quick resolution of US-Iran war?
I think it is priced in with a high %, making it the perfect reason for the SPY to drop 5%-10%
Trump is a man of markets and he knows stock indexes are still near ATHs. They can prolong this war for more than 1 month before needing to pivot and fix things quickly.
That would be a lot of damage due to disruptions in the Straight of Hormuz.
This would be a perfect support test, making dip buyers greedy again.
FWIW I have no idea where this would put Bitcoin since it tends to act completely random at times.