#我的2026第一条帖 Bitcoin hits a new high of $97,899! Ethereum fluctuates around $3,330. Is it a good time to buy the dip or sell at the top on January 15?
In-depth technical analysis: oscillations and breakthroughs under multi-timeframe resonance
(1) Bitcoin: consolidating with high-level oscillations, a breakout requires volume support. From a daily chart perspective, Bitcoin shows a stair-step upward pattern. On January 14, it closed with a bullish candle with upper and lower shadows, confirming a breakout of the key resistance zone at $95,000. The current price remains stably above the EMA30 ($93,006), with the EMA7 and EMA30 maintaining a golden cross. The 120-day moving average ($91,126) provides solid long-term support. The MACD indicator continues to expand, indicating a strong medium-term bullish trend. The 4-hour chart shows a high-level oscillation structure, with the price reaching a high of $97,899 after breaking previous highs, then slightly retreating to around $96,800. Technical indicators show that DIF and DEA remain in a bullish alignment, but the MACD histogram is shrinking, suggesting short-term bullish momentum is waning. Key resistance is concentrated in the $97,800–$98,000 range, which is both a previous high and an important psychological level, with noticeable selling pressure. Support levels include immediate support at $96,000, with further support at $95,000 and $93,400; the latter coincides with EMA30 and provides strong support. In the short term, Bitcoin is in a “confirmation stage after breakout.” If it can stabilize above $96,000 and volume supports, it may attempt to challenge the $98,000 resistance again. If it falls below $95,000, a correction toward $93,400 or even EMA30 is possible.
(2) Ethereum: mainly oscillating within a range, waiting for a breakout of key resistance on the daily chart. Currently, Ethereum is in a balanced state between bulls and bears, fluctuating around $3,300. Although it temporarily stays above short-term moving averages, it remains constrained by the dense resistance zone formed by the 50-day ($3,128), 100-day ($3,292), and 200-day ($3,342) moving averages. Multiple tests of this zone have failed to break through effectively, indicating heavy selling pressure above. The RSI is at 51.0, in a neutral zone, and the MACD is also neutral, not indicating a clear bullish or bearish trend, suggesting market buying and selling forces are relatively balanced. The 4-hour chart shows Ethereum maintaining a “higher lows” short-term upward structure. After bouncing from support at $3,280, it rose to around $3,402 and is now oscillating near $3,330. Key resistance is in the $3,390–$3,400 range, coinciding with recent rebound highs and Fibonacci retracement levels. Further resistance targets $3,450, the previous high in the range. Support levels include immediate support at $3,300, a recent low at $3,280, and a significant structural support at $3,100, which overlaps with the upper boundary of the previous consolidation zone. Technical patterns indicate Ethereum is in a “consolidation and accumulation phase.” The short-term trend depends on whether it can break through $3,400. If successful with increased volume, it could open room to rise toward $3,450. If it fails to break through, a correction back to the $3,300–$3,280 support zone is possible. Falling below $3,280 may lead to further decline toward $3,100.
