Prithvir

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Prithvir

01-13 18:24

These Iran markets have:
• Date ladders
• Conditional chains
• Cross-event dependencies
Exactly the kind of structure where advanced order types and cross-market routing matter.
Prediction markets are becoming a quant playground.

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Prithvir

01-10 13:08

Hey @grok, reply with what you think the annual trading volume for prediction markets will be in 2026.

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Prithvir

01-06 07:12

Interesting

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Prithvir

01-04 15:00

everyone on the timeline
> omg AI is insane, we’re 4x more productive now, SWE is dead
same people in private forums and dms
> hiring a react dev, will pay $20k commission if he joins

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Prithvir

01-04 08:52

Weak men react emotionally to Venezuela and Iran
Strong men analyze the chess board unemotionally by studying history
Spengler and Durant are probably the most useful sources to understand this period of the American empire

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Prithvir

01-03 10:46

on an instinctual level, do you believe the universe is

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Prithvir

01-02 10:26

Prediction Market Weekly Update
Notional Volume
1. @Kalshi $1.7b
2. @Opinionlabsxyz $1.6b
3. @Polymarket $1.09b
4. @predictdotfun $57m
5. @MyriadMarkets $3.13m
6. @Trylimitless $2.4m
Total $4.5b
WoW +12.5%
Open Interest
1. @Kalshi $373m
2. @Polymarket $338m
3. @Opinionlabsxyz $123m
4. @predictdotfun $11.61m
5. @MyriadMarkets $1.14m
6. @Trylimitless $1.03m
Total $849m
WoW +12%
Transactions
1. @Kalshi 7.57m
2. @Polymarket 7.4m
3. @Opinionlabsxyz 1.4m
4. @Trylimitless 186k
5. @predictdotfun 132k
6. @MyriadMarkets 131k
Total 16.8m
WoW +23%
Users
1. @Polymarket 217k
2. @Opinion

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Prithvir

2025-12-31 15:29

Top 10 US Fintech VC Deals 2025

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Prithvir

2025-12-30 11:06

Each tech breakthrough pushes human bandwidth higher, enabling a truer, lossless compression of reality
1. Gestures to speech
2. Speech to handwriting
3. Handwriting to the press
4. The press to the internet news
5. Internet news to prediction markets
The signal from prediction markets is more accurate and higher fidelity than any single news source because it encapsulates supply and demand automatically.
Love them or hate them, prediction markets are a step-function improvement in losslessly compressing reality.

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Prithvir

2025-12-26 06:59

Prediction Market Weekly Update
Notional Volume
1. @Opinionlabsxyz $1.43b
2. @Kalshi $1.34b
3. @Polymarket $1.19b
4. @predictdotfun $37m
5. @Trylimitless $6m
6. @MyriadMarkets $1.9m
Total $4.01b
WoW +5%
Open Interest
1. @Kalshi $343m
2. @Polymarket $332m
3. @Opinionlabsxyz $72m
4. @predictdotfun $9.42m
5. @MyriadMarkets $1m
6. @Trylimitless $0.89m
Total $759m
WoW +12%
Transactions
1. @Polymarket 6.07m
2. @Kalshi 5.2m
3. @MyriadMarkets 0.627m
4. @Opinionlabsxyz 0.45m
5. @Trylimitless 0.33m
6. @predictdotfun 0.07m
Total 13.64m
WoW +7.6%
Users
1. @Polymarket 234k
2. @Opinionlabsxyz 30k
3. @pred

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Prithvir

2025-12-23 05:48

Prediction Markets != CME Binary Options
TradFi veterans look at CME binary options volumes and conclude that prediction markets cannot scale.
This inference is wrong.
Binary options sit in an awkward middle ground:
1. They require deep financial sophistication -- greeks, vol modeling, risk-neutral pricing -- yet cap upside.
2. Traders capable of that complexity rationally choose instruments with convex payoffs: index futures, equity options, structured products.
Prediction markets invert both:
1. Collapse the skill requirement from financial engineering to information advantage. You don’t n

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Prithvir

2025-12-22 10:08

Monetary desensitization is most acute in AI and crypto.
It’s game-theoretically optimal for:
1. VCs to deploy $2B into AI seed rounds with little expectation of near-term DPI
2. Exchanges to absorb $500M hacks as balance-sheet events
Not good or bad. Just an observation of current incentive equilibrium

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Prithvir

2025-12-21 11:33

Ray Dalio on Prediction Markets:
> I like them.
> They’re interesting vehicles for smart people to hedge equity exposure.
Imagine when he learns about RWA perps and PMs working in tandem in the same portfolio.

RAY4,42%

ON-1,3%

GT-1,03%

RWA2,71%

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PleaseCallMeMr.Mai

Congratulations to the partners who held long orders over the weekend and made money. A big pump is coming, fam, hold on to your long orders and keep waiting.

Prithvir

2025-12-19 10:39

Prediction Market Weekly Update
Notional Volume
1. @Opinionlabsxyz $1.53b
2. @Polymarket $1.15b
3. @Kalshi $1.11b
4. @Trylimitless $33m
5. @MyriadMarkets $4.05m
6. @predictdotfun $0.463m
Total: $3.8b
WoW: +8%
Open Interest
1. @Kalshi $313m
2. @Polymarket $296m
3. @Opinionlabsxyz $65m
4. @MyriadMarkets $0.945m
5. @Trylimitless $0.928m
6. @predictdotfun $0.01m
Total: $677m
WoW: +2.7%
Transactions
1. @Polymarket 6.07m
2. @Kalshi 5.2m
3. @MyriadMarkets 0.627m
4. @Opinionlabsxyz 0.45m
5. @Trylimitless 0.33m
6. @predictdotfun 0.07k
Total: 12.68m
WoW: +10%
Users
1. @Polymarket 219k
2. @Opinionlabs

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Prithvir

2025-12-14 07:42

One thing that stood out at Breakpoint
The Solana ecosystem is laser-focused on app revenue as the north star, not market cap, TVL, or other metrics that are easy to game

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Prithvir

2025-12-12 07:31

Prediction Market Weekly Update
Open Interest
1. @Kalshi $304m
2. @Polymarket $295m
3. @Opinionlabsxyz $57m
4. @Trylimitless $1m
5. @MyriadMarkets $0.979m
Total: $659m
WoW: -7%
Transactions
1. @Polymarket 5.87m
2. @Kalshi 4.9m
3. @Opinionlabsxyz 0.37m
4. @Trylimitless 0.27m
5. @MyriadMarkets 0.034m
Total: 11.46m
WoW: +11%
Notional Volume
1. @Opinionlabsxyz $1.35b
2. @Polymarket $1.29b
3. @Kalshi $1.14b
4. @Trylimitless $21m
5. @MyriadMarkets $1.2m
Total: $3.8b
WoW: +8%
Users
1. @Polymarket 223k
2. @Opinionlabsxyz 31k
3. @Trylimitless 26.71k
4. @MyriadMarkets 2.79k
Total: 284k
WoW: -3%
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