LiquiditySurfer

【Chain Wen】A recent interesting phenomenon has emerged in the options market—more and more traders are changing their tune, no longer expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026, but instead betting with real money that rates will stay unchanged throughout the year. This shift started last Friday, when the US employment data was released and caught the market off guard: the unemployment rate surprisingly did not rise but fell, directly shattering expectations of a rate cut.
Now, the market has almost priced in zero probability of a rate cut in January, and traders are continuously pushing back their expectations for subsequent rate cuts. Rate strategist David Robin's latest assessment is: "Based on the data, the Federal Reserve will hold rates at least until March, and the further out you look, the clearer it becomes—rate cuts are basically unlikely."
Interestingly, market behavior most accurately reflects genuine sentiment. In the options for secured overnight financing rates linked to the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate, new positions are mainly concentrated in March and June contracts, clearly indicating a continued delay in rate cuts.

【Blockchain Rhythm】Latest data shows that Aave's market share in the DeFi lending sector has surpassed 51.3%—the first time since 2020 that a single lending protocol has broken the 50% mark.
What is behind this number? Aave currently locks in approximately $3.5833 billion in DeFi lending TVL, establishing an absolute market dominance. In comparison, the second-place Morpho is also growing, but its TVL is only $686.1 million, with a market share of just 9.8%—the gap between the two has already widened to over five times.
Looking further down the rankings, JustLend ranks third with $401.5 million (5.8%), followed closely by SparkLend with $381.1 million (5.5%). Then there’s Maple with $272.4 million, Kamino Lend with $240.2 million, and Compound

The OpenSea product team is testing new features, including a mobile app and trading functionalities, with the goal of achieving unified management of multi-chain assets. Active users are participating in internal testing, and feedback is being collected. Users can connect their wallets to experience the new features in advance and influence upcoming TGE incentives. The Treasures reward program will also continue until the TGE.

On the Hyperliquid trading platform, six traders suffered significant losses due to betting on the decline of Bitcoin and Ethereum, with total losses exceeding one million USD. Multiple traders were liquidated, especially those betting on the decline of BTC and SOL, with the most severe losses, highlighting the enormous risk of shorting.

【BlockBeats】The US Senate is pushing forward a key bill that could fundamentally change the regulatory landscape of the crypto market. According to the latest news, the draft of the "Crypto Market Structure Act" (Clarity Act) under review has raised significant concerns within the industry.
The core issue lies here: the draft grants the US Treasury almost unchecked power. Moreover, these powers even include provisions to directly freeze transactions without a court order. This is a major move for the entire financial system.
Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, offered a thought-provoking comparison — if these measures are actually enacted into law, it would represent the largest expansion of financial surveillance powers since the enactment of the USA PATRIOT Act in 2001. Just imagine what that means.
Particularly noteworthy is that the draft also targets the front-end expansion of decentralized finance.

Recently, a new wallet withdrew 2,400 ETH from an exchange that was held 6 to 9 years ago, while another whale address staked 2,500 ETH. The movement of these dormant assets has sparked market speculation about institutional rebalancing or large investors' strategic positioning, potentially indicating important market signals.

【BlockBeats】Recently, on-chain monitoring detected an interesting transaction. A whale address decided to liquidate part of its holdings amid the BTC rally.
Specifically, last October, this address spent $30 million to buy 264.8 WBTC at an average price of $113,262 each. Today, it transferred these WBTC to a major exchange, which, at the current price, is worth only $24.85 million, resulting in a direct loss of $5.15 million. The timing is a bit unfortunate — it was a good rebound point, but clearly the price hasn't returned to the original purchase cost.
However, this address still holds a significant amount of assets. It also owns $13.49 million worth of gold tokens (including XAUt and PAXG), with an average purchase price of $4,239, currently showing an unrealized profit of $1.07 million. It seems this whale is diversifying its assets, with exposure to both cryptocurrencies and precious metals as a hedge.

Recently, the funding rates in the crypto trading market have changed. Mainstream cryptocurrencies still lean bearish, but overall they are becoming neutral, indicating that the bullish and bearish forces are balancing. The funding rate is a mechanism used to regulate market supply and demand, helping traders understand market sentiment.

U.S. Treasury Department data shows that the budget deficit will decrease to $1.67 trillion in 2025, with increased tariff revenue being a key factor. However, the slowdown in tariff revenue in December and a significant decline in corporate income tax still pose fiscal pressures. The legitimacy of future tariff revenue remains uncertain, which could impact dollar expectations and global markets.

YZi Labs has invested tens of millions of dollars in Genius Trading, with CZ also joining the advisory team. Genius Trading is building a privacy-first decentralized trading platform that allows users to seamlessly access liquidity across multiple blockchains, offering spot, derivatives, and copy trading features, aiming to become an on-chain alternative to traditional exchanges. The CEO did not disclose details of the funding or whether a token will be issued.

【Blockchain Rhythm】The independence of the Federal Reserve is experiencing unprecedented pressure. On January 13, the Trump administration launched a judicial investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, ostensibly over the costs of headquarters renovations, but Powell was frank—this is not an investigation into engineering issues, but a threat to the central bank's independent decision-making authority. His logic is clear: the real purpose of the investigation is because the Fed has not followed the president's wishes on interest rate policy.
This incident should have sparked public opinion. After all, central bank independence is regarded as the cornerstone of modern developed economies. But the reality is quite ironic—the American business community and Wall Street have remained silent collectively. Large corporations, industry organizations, and CEOs have almost said nothing in public.
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, founder of Yale University's Chief Executive Leadership Institute, conducted private surveys revealing the truth: 71% of CEOs believe that the current government is eroding the independence of the Federal Reserve, and 80% believe

BlackRock transferred 3,290 Bitcoins and 5,692 Ethereum to a leading exchange on January 13, indicating its potential intention to continue increasing its holdings of these assets. This suggests that large institutions are engaging in strategic planning rather than random actions.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Paul Atkins stated in an interview that the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act is expected to be submitted to the President for signature this year, aiming to provide a clear legal framework and stable expectations for the cryptocurrency market, promote industry development, and enhance market confidence.