Jamesvanst

MSTR raised $285M today via $STRC and it cost them $33M in dividend obligations.

Tomorrow, for the ex-div date, we will see how strong the demand for $STRC really is.

Bitcoin is trading independently at the moment, with no obvious 1:1 correlation to any major index.

If you're stress testing a double-digit yield product, there is no better time than in a bear market.
Throw on top: oil above $100, Treasury yields climbing, the DXY about to break 100, and risk assets getting whacked.

Sentiment
Peak fear
Funding rates negative, longest stretch since 2025
VIX hits 1-year high
PTSD from the 2022 bear market
STRC/MSTR liquidation concerns
Oil above $90
US 10-year at 4.22%
Private credit contagion
Price
Bitcoin is at $70k.

Saylor knows that in two years Bitcoin will most likely be north of $150k, and these price levels will become unlikely to revisit again.
Then the game is over.
All Strategy has to do is stay solvent, and they already have 24 months of dividend coverage and have proven to the market they can raise a billion in a depressed market (yes, we’re in a bear market).
Even the first convertible note is still trading at a premium to par, even as the stock has declined 85%.
The company’s raising $500M a week to pay a $50M dividend obligation. So does he care they are overpaying a dividend by 1-2%.

Saylor knows that in two years Bitcoin will most likely be north of $150k, and these price levels will become unlikely to revisit again.
Then the game is over.
All Strategy has to do is stay solvent, and they already have 24 months of dividend coverage and have proven to the market they can raise a billion in a depressed market (yes, we’re in a bear market).
Even the first convertible note is still trading at a premium to par, even as the stock has declined 85%.

Google, a $4T company, generates about $350M in net profit per day.
Strategy, a $50B company, is raising roughly $100M per day via its ATM.
Not an apples-to-apples comparison, but it shows the sheer scale of money being raised for MSTR.

If STRC continues at this rate, the entire cycle trajectory changes. Period.

Five months ago exactly was 10/10.
Since then, the industry has seen only one blow-up.
Everyone is waiting for the next shoe to drop and the FTX moment.
FTX was six months after the Luna collapse...
On my timeline we have one more month to go.

If $60k was the bottom and with the minimal institutional allocation deployed into Bitcoin so far.
That allocation has capped further downside risk by about 15–20%. Assuming a full 2026 retail cycle would add around 70%.
MSTR saw an 81% drawdown this cycle, compared to 85% in 2022. Which would tell me that stock has bottomed, and sentiment is starting to turn.

Strategy amended its ATM sales agreement to allow a second broker to sell the same securities outside regular market hours, before 9:30 a.m. or after 4:00 p.m. New York time.
During normal trading hours only one broker can sell. The company can still appoint another agent after 4:00 p.m. to execute large block trades.
H/T @rohanhirani nice spot

MSTR raised enough cash ($1.3B) in one week to pay off the first tranche of convertible debt ($1B).

bottoms come in all shapes and sizes

When markets stop going down on bad news that’s when bottoms form.

Quite remarkable Bitcoin resilience over the weekend, considering the conflict.
Still trading below Friday's futures close, same PA as last week. Expect it to close at the same price before futures open.