AxelAdlerJr

Final issue of On-Chain Fundamentals for Humans is out.
How to combine on-chain metrics into one framework - and what to do when they contradict each other.
3 questions. 1 decision process.
⛳️ Part 9 (Final) 👇

BTC buyers dominate 3 days straight.
But funding negative 23/30 days.
Reversal or bull trap?
new ☕️ Adler AM👇

Compared with both one month and one quarter ago, the 30-day average of BTC transfer volume has declined, pointing to a loss of short-term on-chain momentum.
However, it still remains above its 365-day average and well above the level seen six months ago, suggesting not a structural breakdown but a cooling phase in network activity after the previous expansion.

Compared with a quarter ago, the 30-day moving average remains above the 90-day moving average, pointing to a still-intact local expansion in network activity.
How long this regime can persist remains uncertain.
However, if we look at the current market structure outlined in the latest ☕️Adler AM#122, a move toward the nearest resistance level would likely trigger increased activity from short-term holders seeking to exit at breakeven or with minimal losses.

Bitcoin is trading 24% below STH cost basis.
Short-term holders are trapped underwater.
The real supply overhang is now concentrated in the $87K-$99K zone.
Why this matters for the next move in BTC - in ☕️Morning Brief 122 👇

Bitcoin bounces. STH keep selling at a loss.
7 of the last 8 days below break-even.
Cost basis: $89K. Price: $67K. Gap: 24%.
Every rally is an exit opportunity for underwater holders.
☕️ Morning Brief 121 👇

Bitcoin got a wave of bullish headlines this week. ETF momentum, regulatory progress, capital returning. Then Friday changed everything.
Global 🔴 RISK-OFF took over - and Weekly Engine ended the week with a very different read on the market.
Full report below. 👇

Bitcoin is in the intermediate phase of the current cycle. The NUPL–MVRV Harmonic Composite is 0.33, while past cyclical bottoms began near -0.5.
The chart also shows an upward shift of cycle lows, suggesting capitulation extremes are becoming less severe. Even so, the indicator remains well above the historical bottom zone - full market capitulation is not yet confirmed.

The week is closing in risk-off mode.

LTHs keep dumping their coins on exchanges.

New York’s Attorney General and 23 other states have filed a lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade to block Trump’s new global tariffs.
The states argue the tariffs are unlawful and exceed presidential authority over trade policy. The lawsuit seeks to invalidate the measures and recover damages caused to the states.

Someone just pulled 31,900 BTC off exchanges in a single day.
That's ~$3B moved to cold storage in 24 hours.
Selling pressure or accumulation? The stablecoin data tells the full story 👇

STHs are currently in a maximum HODLing regime - they are not selling their coins despite the price correction.

Bear Regime Losing Control
Taker imbalance: +100 (max) OI pressure: +100 (max) Funding: -45 (only anchor left)
Regime Score went from -47 to 0 in 25 days Structure Shift confirmed simultaneously - first time since January. One component is all that separates Bear from Bull.
☕️ Morning Brief 119 👇

Historically, Smart DCA 2.0 has accumulated more BTC per dollar invested across all four cycles. As capital increases, the strategy produces a higher final portfolio value.
I’m looking at the backtest results right now.

From 19.8M mined Bitcoin, ~5.1M are lost forever. Real float = 14.7M BTC. Every cycle this number shrinks. Irreversibly.
I broke down the entire supply into 3 states:
Active - coins in circulation (40.6%)
Dormant - frozen for 1-7 years (33.6%)
Lost - gone forever (25.7%)
One indicator shows what regime the market is in right now - Dormant/Active Ratio. 👇

Global equity markets remained under heavy selling pressure as the conflict with Iran showed no signs of easing and energy prices continued to rise. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 fell 3.6%, while futures in Europe and the United States pointed to further losses at the market open.

Crypto has a life of its own 🤷‍♂️

Negative funding = short squeeze incoming.
Not this time.
Open interest collapsed from $47.6B → $20.8B. The squeeze crowd is missing the deleveraging story.
Full breakdown in today's Morning Brief 👇

2 hours of structured on-chain reading.
Here’s what you’ll understand:
How Fed liquidity transmits into BTC
Who really controls supply
Where Realized Price becomes support
Who is actually underwater
Why exchange flow panic is often misleading
After this, you stop trading narratives
Full curriculum 👇