0xbit

Macro Conditions for the Bull Market in Commodities:
1. Geopolitical conflicts causing supply shocks
The Strait of Hormuz affects 20% of global oil shipping, 20% of LPG trade, and 9% of aluminum capacity.
2. Ample monetary liquidity
Currently, the Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle, but the background is insufficient market liquidity. Future monitoring of the Fed's monetary policy is necessary.
3. Rigid growth in new demand
AI computing centers, grid upgrades, and new energy vehicles.
4. Low elasticity of inventories and capacity
Global mining companies' capital expenditures have been

BTC remains a risk asset, while gold is a risk-averse asset!
BTC's liquidity is controlled by Wall Street institutions, following the fluctuations of the US dollar market, and its volatility is even greater than that of mature assets like US stocks.
Gold is a global asset, truly borderless. When the US dollar fluctuates, it remains relatively stable. When the dollar falls, gold rises!

The news must be viewed together!

Comparison of the two liquidity crises in the US financial markets:
1. This time it is not as severe as in 2019, and the degree of easing is far less than in 2019.
2. This liquidity crisis, compounded by the government shutdown, has increased uncertainty.
3. Currently, the depth of the BTC drop is similar to that of 2019.
4. This market has hit bottom, and it may take further easing from the Federal Reserve—such as overnight repos and the purchase of short-term government bonds!

Recalling the liquidity crisis of the US dollar in 2019,
Examining the current liquidity panic,
How much further can BTC drop?

The halt is about to end, and a pullback is a great opportunity to buy the dip!
From the weekly perspective, BTC may once again test 99,000 this week, which is near the blue M60 line.
The reason is that, since the standstill has not yet ended, employment data and CPI data cannot be released on time, and there are internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to cut interest rates in December!
The outlook for interest rate cuts is unclear, and with another Federal Reserve official warning about inflation, the market has fallen into panic selling again.
However, it is unlik

BTC Market Analysis:
From the weekly perspective, BTC may once again test 100,000 this week, which is near the blue M60 line.
The reason is that, since the standstill has not yet ended, employment data and CPI data cannot be released on time, and there is disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to cut interest rates in December!
The outlook for interest rate cuts is uncertain, and with another Federal Reserve official warning about inflation, the market has once again experienced a panic sell-off.
However, the level of panic should gradually decrease, as this week the likelih

The Great Beauty Act overall increases government spending and raises the fiscal deficit!
• Increase in expenditure areas:
The bill significantly increases funding for areas such as national defense, border security, and energy production. These measures aim to strengthen national security and energy independence, such as the construction of a border wall and the expansion of military spending.
• Reduce expenditure areas:
At the same time, the bill cuts social welfare programs such as Medicaid, welfare support, student loan assistance, nutrition programs, and "green energy" subsidies. These cu

From the price trend of coins for $SUI and $APT :
Both are public chains based on the MOVE programming language concept, with APT being listed first and the airdrop benefiting a large number of people, taking the lead.
The SUI ecosystem is assumed to be better and more prosperous than APT; therefore, the price of SUI coins has more potential.
The listing of APT is also the pinnacle, representing a microcosm of many hot concepts in VC coins.

$ASTER has formed strong support at 0.916
In addition to the recent @CZ's open call, the trading volume at the bottom has increased.
Although the platform's trading volume has decreased a bit recently, the project has been continuously repurchasing.
When the market rebounds, it will rebound even stronger.
The support of $ASTER may be stronger than $XPL .

The standstill continues,
Non-farm data missing,
USDX explosion
Caused today's decline!

If the stalemate cannot be resolved before November 13,
Quarterly refinancing will continue to drain market liquidity!!

The crypto world has fallen again, when can we buy the dip?
The decline since mid-September is fundamentally due to the tightening of liquidity in the U.S. financial markets; if the crypto world wants to stop falling and rebound, we need to see when the liquidity in the financial system will ease.
The Federal Reserve has the following three short-term tools to address market liquidity:
1. Overnight repurchase
The Federal Reserve provides overnight loans to primary dealers by purchasing Treasury securities and other eligible collateral, and recovers the principal and interest the next day.
2. R

In this cycle, mainstream tokens like BTC and ETH have gained a significant inflow of external funds through the "Treasury" model.
In terms of time, it's a magnified version of "Grayscale".
When the cryptocurrency market enters a bear market and coin prices drop, these treasury companies will see their asset values shrink, and their stocks will also decline.
Then a vicious cycle is formed, Davis double kill!
The rise and fall come from the same source. In a bull market, the rise can be very crazy, while the decline can be very tragic for the brothers!

Use data to prove that the current financial market is facing a liquidity crisis!
1. Bank reserves fall below 3 trillion
-What is bank reserve?
The essence of a bank is to absorb deposits and issue loans. This means that not 100% of the money deposited into the bank is kept there, and of course, not 100% can be loaned out. A portion of the funds needs to be kept to handle cash withdrawals from depositors; otherwise, there would be a risk of a bank run.
-Why 30 trillion?
30 trillion is the market-recognized watershed between "Liquidity Abundance" and "Liquidity Tightness."
After the 2008 financ

Always increase the position,
Forever filled with tears of joy!

Lending arbitrage, worth learning from!

Why do people say that the end of the government shutdown in the United States will ease market Liquidity?
The U.S. Treasury maintains a funding account at the Federal Reserve, commonly referred to in the news as the TGA account.
The Ministry of Finance's sources of income mainly consist of two types: taxation and the issuance of government bonds.
Expenditures mainly go to the following five areas, except for paying interest on national debt, the other funds are all flowing into economic activities.
During the suspension period, all tax revenue continued as usual, except for the issuance o