Yang Guang bit BTC 4.24 Evening Strategy: High-level oscillation is weak, rebound short-squeeze more obvious 🚀

【Latest news】 (Source: Glassnode, CoinGlass, Global Geopolitical News)
Stalled US-Iran negotiations, the risk in the Strait of Hormuz has not dissipated, oil prices remain high, inflation expectations suppress the room for rate cuts, the US dollar remains strong; overnight US stocks the Nasdaq closed up 1.64%, but momentum at high levels weakened, Nasdaq futures opened slightly higher and moved sideways today, tech stocks lack upward momentum, overall risk appetite shifted from strong to weak.
【Market situation】
On-chain funds: BTC current price around 77,600, trading sideways at high levels, tight consolidation between 78,000–78,500, short-term bullish momentum waning; ETF net inflows slowing, no significant accumulation by whales, contract leverage stacking, increased long-short divergence; on-chain chips at high levels are changing hands, selling pressure gradually accumulating, severely compressing rebound space.
Correlation rhythm: BTC remains strongly correlated with US stocks, but Nasdaq is stagnating at high levels with weak rebounds, difficult to sustain strength at tonight’s open, more likely to see “spike high and fall back,” suppressing BTC, with an overall clear pattern of oscillation leaning weak.
【Evening outlook】
✅ Holders: Take partial profits on long positions above 77,800, avoid chasing highs, do not form a pattern, high-level oscillation has limited upward space, avoid the risk of sharp pullback;
✅ Non-entries: At the current price around 77,600, try light short positions, set stop-loss above 77,900, short-term target 76,800–77,000 range;
✅ Extreme contingency plan: If sudden geopolitical good news + US stocks break out strongly, cut losses and observe promptly, do not go against the trend, wait for the direction to clarify before re-entering.
Risk warning
US stocks may see increased volatility tonight, frequent pinning at high levels, strictly control positions, enforce stop-loss, avoid heavy positions, small rhythm for steady arbitrage.
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