It’s interesting to look back at old Bitcoin price forecasts for 2024. I remember how, at the start of the year, everyone was debating whether BTC would reach the 150,000 mark by the end of the year. ARK Invest with Cathie Wood gave a minimum of 124,000, Tom Lee from Fundstrat forecasted 150,000, and PlanB with his Stock-to-Flow model even talked about a million by 2025. Technical analysts like Aksel Kibar identified the 137,000 level as the next resistance. Even on Kalshi’s prediction markets, most were betting on 128,000 by the end of the year.

The main factors back then seemed compelling: approval of Bitcoin ETFs drew in more than 30 billion in investments, institutional adoption was accelerating, and the pro-cryptocurrency stance of the administration created a positive backdrop. The halving in April 2024 cut miners’ rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, which historically preceded price surges. On paper, everything looked logical.

But here we are in April 2026, and BTC is trading around 78,000. The 2024 Bitcoin price forecasts turned out to be too optimistic. It shows how hard it is to predict the market even with good logic. Volatility, macroeconomics, regulatory surprises—everything played a role. That’s how it goes.