A thought I keep coming back to. BTC has never closed two red years in a row. 15 years of data and every single red year was followed by a green one.

2025 closed red. Only down 6% which honestly hides how bad it actually was. We hit 126k in October and still closed the year lower than where we started. That’s a 30% drawdown hidden inside a candle that looks almost flat.
2026 is down over 20% so far, needs to close above 87.5k to keep the streak alive and that’s 25% from here. The 4 year cycle everyone trades off is compressing and the market hasn’t adjusted to that yet.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Not saying it can’t happen but every other time this pattern played out we had rate cuts, improving liquidity and nobody was fighting a war in the middle of the world’s oil supply chain.
This time the setup is different. Maybe the outcome is too or maybe it isn’t.