#BTC能否重返7万美元？

Market News: Bulls and Bears Intertwined, Mainly Volatile
Today’s market is in a balanced state of positive support and negative suppression, without a clear trend, mainly fluctuating within a range. Macro and Regulatory
Federal Reserve officials signal a dovish stance, with inflation easing expected to support rate cuts within the year, benefiting risk assets.
The US stablecoin regulatory framework is clear, with legislative protections for developers, reducing barriers for institutional compliance. Nearly $9 billion in industry and funding options are expiring, increasing market volatility, and prices are easily constrained within the range.
BTC ETF funds are slightly flowing back, institutions are buying on dips, with support below.

Sentiment: Panic
Greed Index remains in extreme fear territory, the market is cautious, and willingness to chase highs is weak.
Market conclusion: No strong one-sided news in the short term, mainly consolidating with fluctuations, awaiting further guidance from non-farm payrolls and the Federal Reserve.
II. Technical Analysis: Sharp Rise and Fall, Key Ranges Clear
Technical trend: Sharp rise and fall, bullish momentum is insufficient, four-hour MACD is shrinking, indicating a weak correction. Resistance levels: 68500–69300 (strong resistance)
Support levels: 66000 (first support) → 64500–65000 (strong support) Structure: If it stabilizes above 66000, the consolidation continues; breaking below may accelerate a retest of 64500.

Technical conclusion:
Entering a converging consolidation phase, mainly buying on dips and selling on rallies, avoid chasing orders.

III. Trading Recommendations (Spot + Contracts)
Overall Strategy
Range-bound market: Focus on buying the dips during rebounds, and selling on rallies, with light positions, quick entries and exits, and strict stop-loss.
Short positions: Enter in batches around 68200–69000 during rebounds, with a stop-loss at 69600, target 67000 → 66000
Long positions: Stabilize on dips around 65500–66000, enter longs, with a stop-loss at 64800, target 67500–68000

Risk Management Tips
Contract positions should not exceed 30%,
Always set stop-loss orders
Volatility increases before and after options expiration, avoid extreme early morning market conditions
Hold spot positions mainly, avoid panic selling or chasing high to add positions