#我在Gate广场过新年 Regulatory Acceleration and Institutional Reversal, Divergence Pattern Emerges

The current crypto market is at a critical turning point. On one side, US regulators are intensively advancing legislation and rulemaking to define clear boundaries for the industry; on the other side, institutions are contrarily increasing their holdings of core assets amid market volatility, demonstrating strong long-term confidence. Meanwhile, market divergence continues to intensify, with low-quality projects being rapidly cleared out, while high-quality sectors and core assets show resilient strength. Combining recent hot topics across the web, we analyze the latest developments and future trends of the crypto market from three dimensions: regulation, institutions, and market.

Regulatory Perspective: The US is accelerating the development of a comprehensive crypto regulatory framework. Core legislation and coordinated regulatory measures are progressing simultaneously, marking a complete departure from previous ambiguous regulation. Recently, the Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) explicitly stated that the structure legislation for the crypto market is “about to be signed into law,” emphasizing that this move aims to establish a stable legislative framework and prevent future regulatory reversals—“we cannot allow a second Gary Gensler to overturn everything,” demonstrating regulators’ commitment to industry standardization.

At the same time, the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and CFTC’s collaborative regulation has entered a substantive phase. SEC Chair Paul S. Atkins revealed during the ETHDenver event that in the coming weeks to months, the SEC will push forward multiple crypto-related regulatory initiatives, primarily jointly advancing the Project Crypto with the CFTC to study the regulatory framework for “investment contracts,” clarifying which crypto assets are subject to regulation as investment contracts.

Additionally, the SEC plans to introduce an “innovative exemption” for tokenized securities, proposing rules to support crypto asset financing, clarifying whether wallets and user interfaces need to be registered under the Securities Exchange Act, and promoting the development of custody rules for non-security crypto assets (including payment stablecoins). The SEC also aims to modernize the transfer agent system to better fit blockchain’s role in record-keeping, addressing compliance pain points across the industry comprehensively.

The White House is also actively promoting the implementation of crypto-related legislation to improve the regulatory framework. During its third meeting with banks and the crypto industry, the White House explicitly supported the Market Structure Legislation allowing limited stablecoin rewards, provided they do not threaten bank deposit operations. Currently, bank representatives are actively involved in drafting related clauses. The White House will distribute the latest draft to all parties, focusing on the stablecoin reward clause in Section 404 of the bill, planning to amend the GENIUS Act enacted last year. However, disagreements remain, mainly over the Democratic proposals to “ban senior officials from engaging in the crypto industry” and to fill the Democratic vacancies at the CFTC and SEC, which may impact the bill’s progress.

Previously, in July 2025, the US signed the “Genius Act” under Trump, establishing an initial regulatory framework for stablecoins. The advancement of this Market Structure Legislation will further improve the US crypto regulatory system.

Institutional Deployment: Despite ongoing market volatility and relatively low prices for core assets, both crypto treasury companies and Wall Street giants are increasing their holdings against the trend, showing long-term optimism for core assets.

Strategy (MSTR), a Bitcoin treasury company, continued to buy Bitcoin last week, acquiring 2,486 BTC at approximately $67,710 each, costing about $168 million. As of now, Strategy holds a total of 717,131 BTC, with a market value of about $48.76 billion. Due to an average cost basis of $76,027, the current unrealized loss is $5.756 billion. Nevertheless, Strategy’s official statement remains that even if Bitcoin drops to $8,000, the company has enough assets to cover all debts. Founder Michael Saylor plans to convert the company’s convertible debt into equity over the next 3 to 6 years, further reinforcing its long-term Bitcoin strategy.

Ethereum treasury company Bitmine (BMNR) is also increasing its ETH holdings. Last week, it bought 45,759 ETH at about $2,001 each, costing approximately $91.56 million. Currently, Bitmine holds 4,371,497 ETH, with a market value of around $8.673 billion, and an average cost basis of $3,801, resulting in an unrealized loss of $7.943 billion. Notably, despite a roughly 48% plunge in Bitmine’s stock price in Q4 2025, major Wall Street firms like Morgan Stanley and BlackRock have significantly increased their holdings.

According to SEC Form 13F filings, Morgan Stanley, the largest shareholder, increased its holdings by 26%, owning 12.1 million shares worth $331 million; the second-largest, ARK, increased by 27%, holding 9.4 million shares valued at $256 million. Other institutions like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Vanguard, and Bank of America also substantially increased their positions, with Goldman Sachs increasing by 588% and Bank of America by 1668%. The core reason is that Bitmine, as the world’s largest corporate ETH holder, possesses long-term asset value in its ETH holdings.

The Ethereum ecosystem itself continues to strengthen, laying a foundation for long-term development. The Ethereum Foundation recently released the 2026 protocol priority updates, focusing on three core tracks:

1. Scaling (Scale): Integrate Layer 1 execution and Blob scaling technologies, aiming to push Gas Limit to 100M and above;
2. Improving User Experience (Improve UX): Focus on native account abstraction and cross-chain interoperability to lower user entry barriers;
3. Enhancing Mainnet Security (Harden the L1): Promote security, censorship resistance, and network resilience, including zkEVM attester clients and post-quantum security work. The next major upgrade, Glamsterdam, is scheduled for the first half of 2026, followed by Hegotá, to continuously improve Ethereum’s performance and security.

The vigorous development of the Ethereum ecosystem has also driven the rise of its core sectors, with RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization) being a prominent example. Recent data shows that the RWA market on Ethereum’s mainnet has surpassed $17 billion, a 315% year-over-year increase from $4.1 billion a year ago, maintaining Ethereum’s leading position with a 34% share of the total RWA across all chains. Traditional financial giants like BlackRock and JPMorgan continue to increase their investments in Ethereum RWA sectors, bringing real assets such as funds and yield products onto the blockchain. BlackRock’s tokenized US bond fund BUIDL has become a representative product in the RWA field. Meanwhile, the total market cap of stablecoins on Ethereum’s mainnet has exceeded $175 billion, highlighting its role as a settlement layer for tokenized USD and RWA, further consolidating Ethereum’s leading position in the crypto ecosystem.

Contrasting sharply with the resilience of core assets and high-quality sectors, the market’s divergence continues to deepen, with low-quality projects being rapidly cleared out. The altcoin market has experienced the most severe sell-off in nearly five years. Excluding BTC and ETH, the net trading volume of altcoins has fallen to -$209 billion. Since supply-demand balance was restored in January 2025, there have been 13 consecutive months of net selling.

From a market structure perspective, retail investors have largely exited, with funds rotating into core assets. Currently, there are no signs of institutions heavily accumulating altcoins. Analysts point out that this is not a short-term correction but a continuation of over a year of net selling pressure in spot markets, with buyers severely lacking. Many altcoins lacking real value are likely to be phased out. The DeFi sector has also undergone a large-scale reshuffle, with many projects shutting down in 2025, including Linear Finance ceasing operations, zkLend liquidating, and Loopring DeFi products terminating. Industry insiders report that the main reasons for these closures are low usage and token liquidity exhaustion, with some projects suffering from hacks, delistings, or market shocks. Currently, many DeFi protocols remain “alive,” with projects like Ethervista and Wombat Exchange having fees below $3,000 in the past 30 days. These unprofitable projects are likely to be gradually eliminated by the market in the future.

Amid overall market volatility and increasing divergence, industry experts have offered different forecasts. Notably, Robert Kiyosaki, author of *Rich Dad Poor Dad*, recently stated that the “biggest stock market crash in history” he warned of in his 2013 *Rich Dad’s Prophecy* is approaching. To hedge against this risk, he has allocated into physical gold, silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, planning to continue buying during Bitcoin’s price declines. He believes that since Bitcoin’s total supply is fixed at 21 million and nearly all are in circulation, market panic selling is essentially a “discount” on high-quality assets and a good long-term investment opportunity.

Overall, the core logic of the current crypto market has shifted: regulation is moving from “vague” to “clear,” with coordinated regulation and legislation providing a stable environment; institutions are shifting from “wait-and-see” to “firm deployment,” focusing on core assets and high-quality sectors; the market is transitioning from “broad rally” to “divergence,” with low-quality projects being cleared out rapidly, and value investing becoming mainstream. For investors, it’s crucial to abandon speculative mindsets and focus on core assets like BTC, ETH, as well as Ethereum ecosystem projects and RWA; for industry practitioners, deepening technological development and creating products with real value are key to long-term success. In the future, with improved regulatory frameworks, ongoing institutional deployment, and the development of high-quality ecosystems, the crypto industry will gradually move toward a more rational and regulated new stage.