#我在Gate广场过新年 Regarding the cryptocurrency market on February 21, 2026, it can be summarized as follows: macro pressures intertwined with extreme panic sentiment. The market is oscillating and building a bottom at a critical point, but institutional funds have not yet flowed back in large scale, casting doubt on the sustainability of the rebound. Today's analysis and strategy will revolve around this core logic.

📊 Market Overview: Bull-Bear Battle, Confidence Awaiting Restoration
The current market is in a stage of fierce competition between bulls and bears. On one hand, prices show signs of stabilization after a deep correction; on the other hand, the momentum for continued upward movement remains insufficient. We can understand the current market environment from the following dimensions:
Macro and Capital Factors: The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy expectations still hang over the market like a sword. Although overly optimistic rate cut expectations have been somewhat corrected, institutional attitudes remain cautious. Recently, US spot Bitcoin ETF funds have continued to see net outflows, with over $400 million withdrawn this week, weakening the market’s marginal buying power. Strategists at Italy’s UniCredit also pointed out that Bitcoin’s recovery requires dual support from macro sentiment and ETF fund inflows.
On-Chain Data and Market Structure: Glassnode, an on-chain analysis firm, indicates that Bitcoin has broken below the “True Market Mean,” a key level historically used to distinguish between expansion and contraction cycles. Meanwhile, retail investors continue to buy, providing “bottom support,” but “whale” (large holder) selling behaviors are suppressing the rebound potential. This “retail buying, large holder selling” structure suggests that a sustainable reversal will require large holders to stop selling or even start accumulating.
Market Sentiment: Today’s fear and greed index has risen to 8, up slightly from yesterday’s 7, but still in “extreme fear” territory. From a contrarian perspective, extreme fear often corresponds to a bottoming phase, but emotional recovery takes time.

🎯 Key Coin Analysis and Strategies
Based on the above background, let’s look at the specific situations and strategies for the two main cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin (BTC): Seeking a New Balance in the Current Situation:
BTC is currently oscillating in the $65,000 - $68,000 range, temporarily holding the short-term support near $65,118. This level is an important defensive line for the bulls; if it breaks, the next key support will shift down to $60,000, and possibly test the structural support at $54,900. Resistance levels: The first strong resistance above is in the $70,000 - $71,247 range. If broken, it could test $74,508.

⚖️ Today’s Strategy:
Conservative Investors: Wait and see, look for the market to clarify its direction. Focus on whether the price can hold above $68,000 and whether spot ETF fund outflows slow down.
Aggressive Investors:
Consider small positions and phased buy-ins within the $65,000 - $67,000 range, with strict stop-loss set below $64,000. If the upward push near $70,000 is weak, consider taking partial profits. Remember, heavy positions are not advisable in the current environment.

Ethereum (ETH): Critical Decision Window
Current Situation: ETH is underperforming the broader market, testing the critical zone between $1,850 and $2,000. The price has broken below the psychological $2,000 level and is forming a “bearish pennant” pattern, which typically indicates continued downward pressure.
Key Levels:
Support below: $1,850 is the short-term bull/bear line. If the daily close effectively breaks below, it may accelerate the decline toward $1,750 or lower.
Resistance above: Only a volume-backed move above $2,100 can reverse the short-term bearish trend and open space for a rebound toward $2,400.
⚖️ Today’s Strategy: Although ETH’s long-term fundamentals (such as staking rates reaching new highs) remain positive, short-term risks have not been eliminated. It’s advisable to temporarily avoid trading and wait for clear signals. If the price finds strong support around $1,850 and forms a bottom pattern, small positions for a long entry can be considered; if volume breaks below, it’s best to abandon the bottom-fishing idea. For investors already in the market, $1,850 is a critical risk control point.

💡 Trading Recommendations
In such an extremely panic-driven and directionless market, discipline is more important than prediction.
You can consider the following approach to formulate your trading plan:
Core Position Defense: If you are a long-term investor, maintaining 60%-70% of your core spot holdings is advisable, but avoid panic selling. You can adopt a “core-rotational” strategy, holding most of your position as a long-term base, with a smaller portion used to respond to volatility.
Cautious Trading with Tactical Positions: For those seeking short-term gains, quick in and out trading is recommended—take profits when the market looks good. The current environment is not suitable for stubborn holding; chasing highs may lead to risks.
Risk Control First: Never use high leverage. The market’s liquidity is relatively tight, making extreme long-short squeezes possible. Keep some stablecoins (USDT/USDC) ready to buy the dip in extreme conditions, and to sleep peacefully during volatile periods.
Monitor Key Variables: Pay close attention to speeches by Federal Reserve officials, US non-farm payroll data, and other macroeconomic information, as these can adjust market liquidity expectations. Also, the flow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs remains the most direct window into institutional movements.

Overall, today’s market is at a crossroads between “darkness before dawn” and “downtrend continuation.” Patience, risk management, and waiting for clearer signals are the best strategies at this moment.