#当前行情抄底还是观望？ From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a clear downtrend overall, with short-term momentum leaning weak. The battle between bulls and bears is intense, and key levels are as follows:

1. Resistance Level Analysis
The first short-term resistance is in the $69,000-$71,000 range, which has been a high point during multiple rebounds and is also a dense trading zone for short-term chips. If a volume breakout occurs above this range, short-term downward pressure will ease, potentially leading to a recovery rally;
The second resistance is at the $75,000 mark, which is the mid-term dividing line between strength and weakness in this correction. Only if the price stabilizes above this level can the current downtrend be reversed.
2. Support Level Analysis
The first short-term support is at the $65,000 mark, which has been tested multiple times recently. If this level is broken, it will once again test the stage low of $59,900 set on February 6. A strong support zone is between $55,000 and $60,000, which is the start zone for Bitcoin’s 2024 halving rally and also the core cost basis for long-term holders. If this zone is breached, the market will enter a deeper correction.
3. Technical Indicator Analysis
From the moving average system, Bitcoin is currently trading below the 5-day, 10-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, which are all in a bearish alignment, showing a clear downward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is below 30, in oversold territory, indicating a short-term technical rebound may be needed, but the strength of the rebound still depends on volume confirmation. The MACD on the daily chart shows the green bars continuing to expand, indicating ample bearish momentum, with no clear signs of stabilization yet.

Market Outlook and Key Levels

Based on current news, capital flow, and technical signals, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a volatile and pressured state in the short term, with downside risks not fully exhausted. The medium- and long-term trends will depend on changes in regulatory policies, macroeconomic environment, and institutional capital movements, which can be divided into three timeframes:
1. Short-term (1-2 weeks): Mainly sideways with pressure, watch for a second bottom risk. In the near term, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate within the $60,000-$70,000 range, with overall weakness and limited rebound strength. Market sentiment is extremely bearish, trading volume continues to shrink, and with potential whale sell-offs, a strong rally is unlikely without positive news. There is a risk of retesting the $60,000 level or even a second bottom. Investors should focus on the $65,000 support level; if it fails, further downside is likely.
2. Medium-term (1-3 months): Increasing battle between bulls and bears, focus on two key variables. The medium-term trend will depend on:
- The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy shift. If the Fed signals clear rate cuts and the dollar weakens, risk assets could see a relief rally, and Bitcoin may also recover;
- The implementation of global regulatory policies. If the US SEC eases crypto regulations and spot ETF capital flows return, the market could see inflows of new funds. Conversely, continued tightening will keep the market under pressure. Many institutions predict Bitcoin will likely fluctuate between $45,000 and $75,000, seeking a new direction.
3. Long-term (beyond 6 months): Structural opportunities remain, but uncertainty is high. Long-term, Bitcoin’s scarcity continues to underpin its core value. As listed companies and institutional investors continue to adopt it, its mainstream asset attributes are expected to strengthen further. However, it’s important to note that Bitcoin’s current trajectory is deeply tied to macroeconomic conditions and regulatory policies. Its “decentralized” narrative has weakened and is increasingly similar to leveraged tech stocks, heavily influenced by global liquidity. Institutions like Standard Chartered Bank forecast that after this deep correction, if macro conditions improve, Bitcoin could rebound in the second half of 2026, with a target price still around $100,000. However, some warn that if regulation continues to tighten, Bitcoin could drop to around $40,000.