Foresight News reports that Willy Woo tweeted that dividing the Bitcoin bear market into three stages is very helpful for judging the cycle. The first stage—the beginning of the bear market—occurs when Bitcoin’s liquidity has already collapsed (this happens in Q3 2025), and the price begins to decline. Bitcoin is a relatively small asset, so it is highly sensitive to liquidity. For this reason, it often leads the global macroeconomy into a bear market, usually by several months. In other words, when smart money withdraws, Bitcoin reacts quickly. Smart money may also withdraw from the stock market, but the stock market does not respond rapidly. In this stage, long-term ultra-bullish investors blindly claim that this is just a correction within a larger bull market, but they cannot provide strong evidence of capital inflows and only talk empty words.
The second stage—global stock markets enter a bear market. Since the stock market is a massive market worth up to $100 trillion, it is like a giant supertanker, slow to move. This is the mid-stage of Bitcoin’s bear market, during which all risk assets are declining, and it is unquestionable that we are in a bear market. The third stage—the dawn at the end of the tunnel. In this stage, liquidity begins to improve, capital outflows peak and start to stabilize. Investors are returning. This stage usually features the last price plunge (capitulation sell-off), which occurs either before the peak of capital outflows or slightly after. According to this bear market framework, Bitcoin is currently in the first stage and approaching the second stage.
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