2026-01-21 10:20:57

I have recently noticed several interesting short signals on the 4-hour chart for T coin.

From a fundamental perspective, the strength of this signal reached 78 points( out of a maximum of 100), with a success probability of approximately 52%. Both the daily chart and the slow trend indicate a clear bearish pattern, with the ADX strength reaching 63, suggesting that the downward trend is quite directional.

The specific trading logic is as follows: enter short positions at the price of 0.00924, with a recommended position size of 0.8%. The strength at this key level is 55%, and it has been tested 12 times historically, indicating that the market recognizes this level quite well.

In terms of risk management, set the stop-loss at 0.00945964, representing a risk of about 2.38%. If the target is reached, the first target is 0.00891054( with a risk-reward ratio of 1.5:1), the second target is 0.00869089( with a ratio of 2.5:1), and the deep target is 0.00836143( with a ratio of 4.0:1). The validity period is 480 minutes, expiring at 1:19 AM on January 22, 2026.

From the volume perspective, the market is currently in a low-volume contraction phase, with the main volume ratio at only 0.2x, and the price is stable. The order book shows a buy-sell ratio of 1.48:1. Interestingly, market sentiment is actually bullish—the long-short ratio is 1.77:1, indicating an upward trend in market sentiment. Such divergence can sometimes be a good opportunity for shorting.

Regarding the moving regression channel, the upper band is at 0.01042356, the lower band at 0.00927328, and the Fibonacci 0.618 level is at 0.00998415. From the current position, it is not near any critical historical levels.

Key reminder: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and strict position control is crucial. Stop-losses must be set—this is not a suggestion but a necessity. This signal is only for trading reference; final decisions should be based on your own risk tolerance.

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InfraVibes

· 3h ago

Hmm... I am really a bit hesitant about signals with a 52% success rate. Haha, this divergence phenomenon is indeed interesting, but doing short positions with reduced volume always feels a bit虚 (uncertain). The data looks quite detailed, but I still prefer to wait for a more明确 (clear) breakout before taking action. T coins are really hard to please. Wait, the main volume ratio dares to enter at less than 0.2? That's quite bold. This risk control logic is good, but the probability of making money is a bit悬 (uncertain). To be honest, I feel that when the bullish sentiment is so high, shorting might actually be more risky.

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TokenVelocityTrauma

· 5h ago

52% success rate... really? Isn't that just betting 50:50, feels no different from flipping a coin --- With such low volume, how dare you short? Main volume ratio at 0.2x, who can handle that? --- You’re bullish in sentiment but shorting, I understand this divergence, but who knows when the market will synchronize with the fundamentals --- Starting with a 0.8% position at least shows some rationality, unlike some people going all-in and losing everything --- It expires in 480 minutes, basically short-term testing the waters, with a lot of luck involved --- ADX at 63 looks intimidating, but in a shrinking market, false breakouts are easy; beware of being cut --- What does Fibonacci 0.618 matter? The key is when market sentiment will reverse --- I just want to know, does the person doing this analysis have real money invested themselves

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ETHReserveBank

· 5h ago

52% success rate? That's about the same as flipping a coin, and you still need a sudden surge in trading volume. --- Divergence looks bullish but shorting? I've seen this trick too many times; next time it won't work. --- Another 480-minute short-term order, feels like playing with fire. --- 0.8% position size is so cautious, it seems the author isn't confident either. --- Is the position at that point after 12 historical tests really reliable? Seems like the data speaks for itself. --- Volume shrinks but still daring to short, quite brave. --- There are so many Fibonacci levels, which one should I trust? --- Stop loss starting at 2.38%, accidentally giving it to the exchange. --- Market sentiment is rising but you're bearish, that's a bit against human nature. --- 78 points signal, 52% probability, a standard setup for median players.

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WalletDetective

· 5h ago

52% success rate? Bro, isn't this just gambling with coins? Feels almost the same as flipping a coin. Shorting is shorting, why do you always have to pile up a bunch of data to make yourself look professional? Despite the shrinking volume, the sentiment still looks bullish—that divergence phenomenon... sometimes it's just a trap. The key is that old saying: control your position and set stop-losses. Don't ask me how I know. Should I follow this move? Let's wait and see. Anyway, I don't have much USDT.

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LiquidationKing

· 5h ago

52% success rate? Bro, isn't this just gambling with coins? I still believe in T coin's rebound. --- The divergence phenomenon is indeed interesting, but I usually avoid shrinking volume markets. --- Strict stop-loss and a 4-hour chart—feels like every time it's said, I still end up losing. --- Entering at 0.00924? It looks to me like a sweep order is coming. --- Wait, with a long-short ratio of 1.77, still going short? That's a bit against human nature. --- ADX 63 is indeed strong, but I don't see how this signal strength of 78 points is convincing. --- Starting with a position of 0.8%, a risk-reward ratio of 4:1 is tempting, but I'm just worried there won't be a follow-up. --- This market is really boring; in a shrinking volume state, I choose to lie flat. --- What does 12 historical tests tell us? It will break again next time. --- It won't expire until January 22 next year? Then I won't rush.

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