The supply and demand story of gold is repeating: Why a parabolic rise in BTC may be imminent

【CoinPush】An interesting perspective: the price logic of gold and BTC is actually the same, both driven by supply and demand.

Let’s first look at what happened with gold. After the US froze Russia’s sovereign debt reserves in 2022, central banks around the world completely changed their appetite for gold, with annual purchases jumping from 500 tons to 1,000 tons, and this pace has continued to the present. Despite such a significant change in demand, gold prices did not spike immediately; instead, they only increased by 2% in 2022, 13% in 2023, and 27% in 2024—only entering a real frenzy in 2025.

Why is that? Because the increased demand in the previous years was met by existing gold holders’ sales. As long as there are people willing to sell, prices will face downward pressure. But when the selling pressure is gradually exhausted and demand continues to flow in, prices will jump dramatically.

The current situation with BTC is quite similar. Since the launch of the spot ETF in January 2024, the ETF purchase volume has already exceeded 100% of BTC’s new supply—in other words, buying pressure has long surpassed the growth of new coins. But why hasn’t the price fully took off yet? The same principle applies: the current ETF buying is mainly satisfied by existing holders selling.

The key issue here is: if ETF demand truly sustains long-term, the selling pressure will eventually be exhausted. Once those willing to sell at the current price are all out, the inflow of ETF funds will have little source to satisfy it, and the price will have to jump. This is a classic story of supply and demand imbalance driving assets from slow growth to rapid surge.