After a wave of main force borrowing and increasing volume to push the price up, the seemingly strong market is actually undercurrents. From the 1.8460 start to the high of 2.651, a 20% increase looks impressive, but this is not a victory of fundamentals—it's purely driven by a surge in contract holdings. A typical short-term speculation pattern that seasoned traders can see through at a glance.

Order book data is even more interesting. The long-short ratio of large accounts is 1.21, making it seem like the bulls have the advantage. But when looking at the open interest ratio, it’s only 1.16. More importantly, active selling volume at high levels indicates what? The main force is quietly offloading during retail traders’ chase.

Technical warning signals are already quite clear. The daily MACD remains in a golden cross, but the red histogram hasn't expanded with the price increase, which is a dangerous divergence. The 4-hour chart faces resistance at the 2.651 level, with a long upper shadow. Looking at the 15-minute chart, MACD divergence has already appeared, meaning the bullish momentum is basically exhausted.

Currently, the 2.553 level is at the upper edge of high-range consolidation, with support below at 2.106, which is quite far away. If the main force really dumps the market, the decline could be quite rapid. Compared to that, the risk-reward ratio of shorting at this stage is clearly better than chasing longs. Exercise caution.