#CryptoObservers  Historical data suggests that Bitcoin could reach $330,000 before the bull market is over.

The Bitcoin AVIV Ratio remains below historical highs, suggesting that the price could rise above $330,000 before a cycle top is confirmed.
Over-the-counter (OTC) Bitcoin holdings have declined significantly in 2025, suggesting a strategic accumulation by Strategy, et al.
The Bitcoin (BTC) price has had a volatile month, but recent analysis suggests that BTC could rise another 300% this cycle. Technical analyst Gert van Lagen points to the AVIV Ratio, a metric that compares Bitcoin’s active capital (money in motion) to its total invested capital (realized capital excluding miner rewards).
Historically, the AVIV Ratio has signaled a cycle top when it exceeds the +3σ mean deviation level. For example, BTC was trading at $1,200 in 2013, around $20,000 in 2017, and around $69,000 in 2021. Currently, the level of the AVIV Ratio is trading below these previous peaks, suggesting that Bitcoin could rally to at least $330,000 this cycle before a +3σ mean deviation condition occurs.
The AVIV Ratio provides a unique look at market dynamics by reflecting the relationship between investor activity and locked value. A sudden increase in the ratio usually indicates heavy trading or profit taking that precedes major price movements. Van Lagen’s analysis attributes it to the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s historically significant gains in rallies following all-time highs. However, the forecast accuracy has not been validated across different market conditions, and volatility remains an uncertain factor.
Contributing to this narrative, the data reveals a significant shift: Bitcoin holdings on over-the-counter (OTC) desks fell from 166,500 BTC to 137,400 BTC in 2025. This decline suggests that large investors are pulling their assets off exchanges, which could signal either a decrease in selling pressure or a shift to long-term storage.
The decline in balances on OTC desks this year is due to the strategic accumulation of institutional investors, which started with Strategy’s aggressive purchases and continued with new participants. Net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $128.18 billion.
According to historical data, a rally is on the horizon for Bitcoin, which has fallen to $103,000
Power law shows Bitcoin price target between $220,000 and $330,000
Similar to Van Lagen’s $330,000 price target, another study by Bitcoin researcher Sminston With also predicts a similar cycle peak for BTC. With’s analysis is based on a power law model aligned with a 365-day simple moving average (SMA) and has a correlation of R²=0.96. This model predicts that Bitcoin could reach between $220,000 and $330,000 this cycle.
Currently trading at around $101,000, BTC would need to rally between 100% and 200% to reach these levels, which is consistent with historical highs. In the past, prices have doubled or tripled above the power law trendline.
With’s model challenges the assumption of decreasing volatility, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price cycles still feature significant volatility, with constant deviations from the trendline. Although optimistic, the researcher cautions, noting that his analysis is based on only four market cycles.
Similarly, he reported that a list of 30 bull market top indicators suggests that Bitcoin could rise to $230,000, while none of the indicators pointed to a cycle top despite BTC reaching $112,000. Metrics such as Pi Cycle Top and MVRV suggest that the bull market could continue, supporting With’s optimistic outlook.