QCP Capital: The Federal Reserve (FED) maintains a hawkish stance; geopolitical situations and tariff risks may exacerbate market Fluctuation.

On June 19, it was reported that QCP Capital, a Singaporean crypto investment institution, said that the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged, but maintained a hawkish stance, emphasizing that recent inflation expectations are still high, and tariffs are the main upside risk. Officials reiterated that they will take a wait-and-see approach and wait for a clearer path for inflation. Despite the perception that a weaker labor market will prompt a policy pivot, the US economy remains strong for now, with solid employment and consumption data. Oil markets reacted mutedly to geopolitical news, with oil prices trading in a tight range and implied volatility retreating from their highs despite ongoing US-Iran tensions. The Trump administration has an incentive to push for a deal with Iran ahead of the election to avoid higher oil prices pushing up inflation and interest rates. Global trade tensions are on the rise, with the United States reaching an agreement with only one of its 195 potential trading partners before the end of the EU tariff moratorium on July 9. Key timing points include: the possible retaliatory tariffs imposed by the EU on the United States on July 14, the end of the tariff suspension period between China and the United States on August 12, and the expiration of tariff exemptions on Chinese goods on August 31. These events may trigger market volatility, but a stable outcome of the US-China trade talks is still expected. The crypto market entered a seasonal downturn, with BTC’s short-term implied volatility falling below 40% and put option premiums reflecting cautious sentiment. Month-end option expirations, rebalancing flows, and systematic deleveraging dominate near-term price action.