Will Bitcoin rebound in December? Need to follow the comprehensive influences of liquidity, institutional funds, policy trends, and more.

Bitcoin experienced severe fluctuations in November: at the beginning of the month, it reached as high as 110,000 USD, but weeks later fell to a low of 80,600 USD, possibly marking the largest monthly decline since 2018. However, in the past week, the market has shown signs of recovery, with Bitcoin rising 10.6%, returning to the 90,000 USD level, bringing a glimmer of optimism to the market.

Market analysis indicates that trading volume this week has significantly decreased due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. Wall Street will be closed all day on Thursday, and only open for a half day on Friday, with limited liquidity being a key factor. Meanwhile, concerns about the bubble in the artificial intelligence sector are gradually dissipating, while expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are continuing to rise. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool shows that the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut on December 10 is as high as 84.7%, with only 15.3% believing that rates will remain between 3.75% and 4%. A decrease in interest rates often boosts risk assets, and Bitcoin is expected to benefit.

ARK Invest pointed out that several Federal Reserve officials support further interest rate cuts. Recent macroeconomic data, such as rising unemployment and weak retail sales, have also reinforced the demand for loose policies. The recovery of liquidity, the end of quantitative tightening, and the policy shift towards support provide conditions for the stabilization of Bitcoin's trend. Meanwhile, the successor to the Federal Reserve chairman has not yet been determined, and market rumors suggest that Donald Trump may announce the final candidate before Christmas. If the candidate leans towards rapid interest rate cuts, it will further boost investor confidence.

Historical data shows that December is usually a quiet month for Bitcoin trading, with a lower probability of rising in December after a fall in November since 2013. The Wintermute report indicates that the market structure is gradually becoming healthier, with perpetual contracts decreasing, and spot trading becoming the main active point. However, overall liquidity remains limited, and short-term trends are still affected by macro factors and market catalyst events.

Divergence in institutional views: QCP Capital believes that Bitcoin is unlikely to break through the mid $90,000 range, and institutional inflows remain weak; JPMorgan emphasizes that institutional participation is key to Bitcoin's long-term future, with the impact of the four-year cycle diminishing, making economic trends more important; Arca investment manager David Nage likens Bitcoin to Facebook's “transformational moment,” where early users shift to other assets, but it still has growth potential in the long run.

Overall, although Bitcoin experienced a significant correction in November, it has rebounded to $90,000 in the short term. The market is observing the comprehensive impact of December's liquidity, policy trends, and institutional funds on prices. (Cryptonews)