Jin10 data compilation: Key points of the Bank of England's June interest rate decision - unexpected increase in voting divergence, is the probability of a rate cut rising in August?

GoldenOctober2024

2025-06-19 12:33:15

Interest rate decision: The Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, in line with market expectations. 2. Voting ratio: The voting ratio was 6:3, with Bank of England Monetary Policy Commissioner Dingra, Bank of England Deputy Governor Ramsden, and Commissioner Taylor voting in favor of a rate cut. 3. Interest Rate Outlook: A gradual and prudent approach remains appropriate, emphasizing that monetary policy is not following a predetermined path. Governor Bailey said interest rates would be “gradually lowered”. 4. Economic outlook: GDP growth in Q2 is forecast to be about 0.25% quarter-on-quarter (0.1% in May). Potential GDP growth in the UK still appears to be weak. 5. Inflation outlook: Risks to the medium-term CPI path are bidirectional, with wages expected to slow sharply for the rest of the year. CPI is expected to peak at 3.7% in September and remain below 3.5% for the rest of the year. 6. Tariff Impact: Preliminary analysis suggests that the direct impact of tariff shocks on global GDP is likely to be smaller than expected in May. Recent developments in the global situation did not have a significant impact on the decision to maintain interest rates in June. 7. Market impact: GBP/USD fell against the US dollar in the short term, and traders increased their bets on the Bank of England to cut interest rates in August, expecting an 80% chance of a rate cut, while the central bank is expected to cut rates by another 50 basis points this year.

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