Markets always swing to extremes; before reaching a peak, there is a trough. Just as darkness is darkest before dawn, and even darker afterward. In the face of major new technologies, markets tend to overestimate the present initially and underestimate the long-term later. Before markets improve, they often deteriorate first, then perhaps genuinely turn around. Markets are not always efficient; when everyone thinks they are inefficient, they often become surprisingly efficient. Therefore, "simplicity is the result, not the starting point." The starting point of investing is always reading more
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