Just caught Egrag Crypto laying out an interesting macro structure on XRP that's worth paying attention to. This analyst has been pretty bullish on the fourth-largest crypto for a while, and his latest take suggests we're sitting at a critical juncture.

So here's what Egrag is seeing: a classic W formation playing out on the monthly chart over the past six years. The first leg of this W already completed back in 2025 with a breakout, and we're currently grinding through the second leg—basically a pullback that kicked off last October. That pullback has been brutal, wiping out more than 56% from recent highs, but according to Egrag's analysis, this is exactly what should happen in a healthy W pattern.

The key zone everyone should be watching right now is the $1.60–$1.80 band. If XRP can reclaim and hold above these levels, the bullish structure stays intact. But here's where it gets interesting: if we see a decisive reclaim of $2.00, that would be the real confirmation signal. Once that happens, Egrag is targeting an initial move to $3.30, which could then open doors to even higher levels.

Now, Egrag's probability breakdown is worth noting. He's putting the bull-case scenario—a full expansion all the way to $22—at around 25–35% probability. More likely, according to his analysis, is a conservative outcome where XRP tops out somewhere in the $3–$8 range, which he's assigning 50–60% odds to. There's also a 10–15% chance of a deeper reset if things go wrong.

As for what could break this thesis, Egrag flags the $1.40–$1.20 support zone as the line in the sand. If price breaks below that range, we're looking at a potential long-term downtrend rather than just a pullback. Another invalidation signal would be if XRP fails to reclaim $2.00 or shows a fake breakout with fading momentum.

At the time of his post, XRP was hovering around $1.41, down about 2.33% on the day. The latest data shows it's now trading at $1.33 with a 2.69% drop over 24 hours—so we're still in that grind phase. The real test for traders will be whether XRP can defend the $1.60–$2.00 zone or if we're headed for a breakdown. If Egrag's W pattern thesis holds up, that $1.60–$2.00 area is basically make-or-break for the bullish narrative.