The probability of predicting "the U.S. government shutdown this year" on Kalshi has reached its highest level since February.

On September 12, according to data from the prediction market Kalshi, the market currently estimates the likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown this year at 54%, the highest level in months. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer warned on Thursday that if Republicans refuse to include key healthcare provisions in any protocol, Democrats are prepared to let government funding run out.

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