#SOL ETF发行新进展 On June 11, the U.S. SEC required applicants to amend the staking clauses in their S-1 filings and promised to provide review feedback within 30 days, signaling a tendency toward a more relaxed regulatory stance. The market expects that if progress goes smoothly, the Solana Spot ETF may be approved as early as mid-July. Currently, seven asset management giants, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted relevant applications, competing for a ticket to get on board. Among them, Grayscale plans to convert its SOL trust product into a Spot ETF, attempting to replicate the compliance path of BTC and ETH.

Looking back at history, after the BTC spot ETF was approved in January 2024, it rose from $27,000 to $73,000, an increase of 2.7 times, despite a 21% short-term correction in between; while ETH failed to continue the myth, only rising 30% after the ETF approval in May, and due to not incorporating stake earnings, it even fell by 30% after trading was opened. So, does SOL have the potential to replicate BTC's explosive rise?
According to GSR's capital flow model, if the attracted funds reach 5% of BTC, the theoretical price of SOL could rise from the current approximately $160 to $500, an increase of more than 3 times. However, this also comes with considerable risks, including potential selling pressure from early investors, unclear staking mechanisms, and on-chain liquidity possibly being affected by ETF fund migration. In terms of timing, the Solana ETF may trigger speculation in the range of $200~$300 in the short term, but the mid-term performance will depend on whether staking returns can be integrated into the ETF structure and whether the Solana ecosystem has the capacity to absorb new funds and users.
Overall, the launch of the SOL Spot ETF will undoubtedly become the market focus and may bring a short-term surge. However, to truly replicate the upward trajectory of BTC, it still needs to navigate through two hurdles: regulation and ecosystem.