The World Bank raised China's growth outlook to 4.8%.

The World Bank raised its growth forecast for China in 2025 to 4.8%, up from 4% in April, close to the official target of 5%. This growth reflects support from the government and a temporary increase in exports due to rising orders amid high American tariffs, currently at 57.6%.

The stimulus packages at the end of 2024, including the consumer goods exchange program, aim to boost retail and exports to Southeast Asia and Europe, compensating for weak domestic demand. However, retail sales only increased by 3.4% in August, and real estate investment fell by nearly 13%, indicating that the real estate market remains weak and consumer confidence is low.

Spending during the Golden Week remains weak despite the longer holiday. Structural challenges include high youth unemployment, an aging population, and slow job creation in startups. The World Bank forecasts growth to drop to 4.2% by 2026, impacting the entire region.