Can PYTH continue to pump after a 100% surge? A comprehensive analysis of bullish reasons and key risks for 2025-2026.

Last week, the focus of the crypto market undoubtedly fell on Pyth Network (PYTH). The U.S. government announced that it would put economic data on-chain and chose PYTH as the infrastructure for deployment. As soon as the news broke, the price of PYTH surged over 100% during trading, reaching a new all-time high, with both volume and the activity in the derivation market skyrocketing. So, can this rally continue into 2025-2026? Or will it be pushed back by supply pressure and profit pullbacks?

Catalyst for the explosion: Endorsement by the U.S. government

(Source: Trading View)

Event Driven: The U.S. Department of Commerce will put economic data on-chain, selecting PYTH as the core infrastructure.

Market reaction:

Price increased more than 100% within the day.

The volume soared from 23.36 million USD to 1.42 billion USD (+6,000%)

Derivation volume突破 30億美元，持倉量從 4,000萬美元飆至 1.94億美元

This is not only a short-term emotional stimulus, but also a significant exposure of PYTH on the global blockchain application stage.

Short-term technical analysis and capital dynamics

Pullback Health:

The spot market saw a capital outflow of $12 million over the weekend, but the price managed to hold most of the pump.

Rising from the low point of 0.19 dollars to 0.25 dollars

Clearing data:

Short position loss of 11 million USD

Long liquidation of only 7 million dollars

Funding rate: High point turns negative, indicating a cooling down after short-term overheating.

Interpretation: The pullback magnitude is below the historical average, indicating that most investors choose to hold their positions and remain on the sidelines, with bullish sentiment still present.

Bullish Reasons for 2025-2026

1. Potential of Government and Institutional Applications

PYTH has become the preferred choice for on-chain economic data for the U.S. government, laying the groundwork for more collaborations with governments and institutions in the future. The network effects of such applications may lead to long-term stable demand.

2. Liquidity and Market Depth Improvement

This round of market indicates that PYTH has the liquidity to support huge trades, and the participation in the derivation market has increased, which helps attract more professional traders and institutional funds.

3. Brand and ecosystem position strengthening

In the oracle space, PYTH and Chainlink form a duopoly, with government endorsement further solidifying their market trust.

Key Risks: Supply Unlock Pressure

(Source: DefiLlama)

Supply rhythm:

Unlocking in May 2024: Circulation increases from 3.62 billion to 5.74 billion.

Next unlock: May 2025, the circulation will reach 7.87 billion.

Impact Analysis:

Unlocking periods often bring selling pressure, creating a dilution effect on prices.

If the market capitalization growth slows down, the supply shock will be more evident.

Countermeasures: If the market capitalization continues to grow significantly, the negative impact brought by unlocking may be completely absorbed by the demand side.

2025-2026 Price Outlook

Conclusion

PYTH achieved a historic breakthrough in 2025, with the U.S. government's choice placing it on the global stage. In the short term, the increase in liquidity and demand will continue to support prices; in the medium term, caution is needed regarding the pressure from supply unlocks; in the long term, if institutional applications and ecosystem expansion continue, PYTH is expected to refresh its historical high again before 2026.

For investors, this is a game of "high growth + high volatility"—the key is whether one can seize the golden window of demand before supply pressure arrives.