Identify the key trends of the market
EMAs (7, 25, 99): The current price is below all 3 EMAs on all timeframes (1H, 4H, 1D, 1W), indicating that the downtrend is still dominant.
Trends across timeframes:
1H, 4H: The downtrend is clear with the peaks and troughs gradually lowering.
1D: Medium-term downtrend, price continues below EMA(99).
1W, 1M: Long-term downtrend, no signs of a strong reversal.
Break of Structure (BOS) / Change of Character (ChoCH): No bullish BOS, the downtrend is maintained.
Market momentum:
OBV & MFI: OBV is down, confirming cash flow has not returned.
Open Interest (OI): There are no signs of large cash flows pushing prices up.
=> The general trend is down, there is no clear reversal signal.
Identify key support & resistance zones
Support:
$2.58: A 24-hour low, if broken, could return to the $2.32 area (mức the previous low on the 1W) frame.
Resistance:
$3.00 - $3.20: Strong resistance zone, coinciding with EMA(25) on the 1D and 4H frames.
Liquidity grab: Price shows signs of scanning the stop-loss at $2.58 before bouncing off slightly.
Fibonacci Retracement: If the price bounces from $2.58, the 0.382 Fibo levels ($2.85) and 0.5 ($3.00) are key resistances.
=> Critical Support: $2.58 - $2.32 | Strong Resistance: $3.00 - $3.20
Candlestick Pattern Analysis & Price Action
On the 4H & 1D frames: Long red candles with high volume, no strong reversal candles.
Fakeout / Trap: Price shows signs of a slight retracement in the $2.58 area but has not confirmed a reversal.
Delta Volume Analysis: Selling pressure is still large, there are no strong signs of buying from whales.
=> There is no clear reversal pattern, the downtrend is still strong.
Technical indicator analysis to confirm signals
MACD: Below the 0 line, there are no signs of an upward cross.
RSI: Below 40 on the 1D frame, not yet in the oversold zone but still weak.
Bollinger Bands: The price is sticking to the lower boundary, signs of continuing to fall.
OBV & MFI: Cash flow has not returned strongly.
Open Interest & CVD: OI falls, there are no signs of strong buying from institutions.
=> Indicators still confirm the downtrend, there are no reversal signals.
Smart Cash Flow Analysis (Smart Money Concept - SMC)
Order Block (OB):
A bearish OB at $3.00 - $3.20 could be a good short zone if the price rebounds.
OB support at $2.58 - $2.32 could be a buy point if there are signs of a reversal.
Liquidity grab: Price may scan down to $2.58 to consolidate before rising slightly.
=> It is necessary to observe the price reaction in the $2.58 - $2.32 zone before making a decision.
Determine the market stage according to the Wyckoff Method
Current: (Markdown) discount.
Signs of accumulation: Not clear, it is necessary to see the price reaction at $2.58 - $2.32.
If there is Spring: A consolidation zone can form if the price bounces off a strong support zone.
=> There is no sign of accumulation yet, it is necessary to wait for more data.
Suggest a trading strategy
✅ If BTC rises:
Buy: When the price confirms to hold the $2.58 - $2.32 zone, there are signs of a reversal (nến the Pin Bar, Engulfing).
Stop loss: Below $2.30 to avoid being scanned.
Target: $3.00 - $3.20.
✅ If BTC falls:
Short: If the price retests $3.00 - $3.20 and is rejected.
Stop loss: Above $3.30.
Target: $2.58 - $2.32.
✅ If BTC is sideways:
Wait for price to react at support & resistance to trade in the range.
✅ If there is a fakeout:
Check the Volume & Delta Volume to avoid being trapped.
=> For now, it is preferable to watch, waiting for signal confirmation at $2.58 - $2.32 before entering a position.
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
$FIL
{spot}(FILUSDT)
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FIL/USDT Technical Analysis on Timeframes