What to Expect in the Coming Months According to Bitcoin's Halving Cycle? When is the Rally? - Coin Bulletin

CryptoQuant analyst mentioned that a selling wave in May, a sideways trend throughout the summer, and an increase in the last quarter of the year are expected for Bitcoin in the short term.

Bitcoin, although not yet entered a full bull cycle after the halving, according to analysts, there may be an increase in prices in the last quarter of the year. In addition, MicroStrategy's (MSTR) ongoing Bitcoin purchases indicate that institutional demand continues, while a selling wave is expected in May and a sideways trend throughout the summer.

When we look at the price movement after the halving in 2020, Bitcoin had gained 686% between May 11, 2020, and November 8, 2021. However, with the last halving on April 20, 2024, only a 63% increase was recorded between the all-time high seen in January.

Bitcoin's power law model and diminishing returns law may predict more moderate price movements in the future, but according to the analyst, the current increase indicated that the halving cycle was not yet complete and the price still had upward potential.

The Role of MSTR: Indicator of corporate demand

MicroStrategy's new name, Strategy (MSTR), continued to buy Bitcoin in early 2025 and recently added 7,633 BTC, increasing their total holdings to 478,740 BTC.

MSTR's purchases were seen as a leading indicator reflecting institutional demand for Bitcoin. Historically, since these purchases generally progressed in parallel with price cycles, the continuation of new purchases was interpreted as a bullish signal, while the halt of purchases could be a sign of weakness.

Expectations in the upcoming period

According to the analyst, a selling wave in May, sideways movements throughout the summer, and expectations of an increase in the last quarter were strong. The positive seasonal effect of Bitcoin in the last quarters was repeated in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024.

However, it was stated that a deeper correction could be postponed for several months or even a year. The analyst, who pointed out that macroeconomic developments would also affect prices, expressed that global events such as a possible ceasefire in Ukraine could support risky assets like Bitcoin by increasing global risk appetite.