Indicator Predicting October Rally in Bitcoin Turns "Bearish": But There's a Difference! - Coin Bulletin

Although Bitcoin's MACD indicator signals a downward trend by providing a negative signal, price movements have not yet confirmed it. However, Trump's customs tariff statements and increasing inflation expectations may cause fluctuations in the markets.

According to Coindesk analyst Omkar Godbole's article, a significant momentum indicator that predicted the ** Bitcoin price movements of (BTC) **, the MACD histogram, has entered the negative zone, but price movements have not yet confirmed this bearish signal. On the other hand, Donald Trump's aggressive rhetoric on tariffs could put pressure on the markets.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, commonly used in Bitcoin's technical analysis, helps determine the direction and strength of price trends. This indicator is calculated by subtracting the 26-week average price from the 12-week average price of Bitcoin and then comparing it with a signal line. Finally, the difference between the two values is plotted as a histogram.

MACD Has Crossed into Negative Territory, But Prices Have Yet to Confirm

In the weekly charts of Bitcoin, the MACD histogram fell below zero, indicating a downward trend. However, the fact that this signal has not yet been confirmed by price movements shows that investors should not make hasty decisions. Previously, this indicator crossed into the positive zone in October 2024 and supported Bitcoin's rise towards $100,000.

Currently, Bitcoin continues to trade in the range of 90,000 to 100,000 dollars. The recent price movements are close to the upper band of this range, ranging from 95,000 to 100,000 dollars. The sideways movement of prices weakens the impact of the downward signal in MACD.

Although technical indicators have not yet given a clear signal of decline, macroeconomic factors can cause fluctuations in the Bitcoin market. In particular, former US President Donald Trump's plan to impose an additional 25% tax on steel and aluminum imports is among the developments that have unsettled global markets. According to UBS, Trump could also announce higher taxes on various products imported from the European Union in the coming days.

Such protective policies can increase bond yields and accelerate outflows from risky assets. This situation may lead to more selling pressure on volatile assets like Bitcoin.

According to the analyst, considering the macroeconomic risks, there is a stronger possibility of Bitcoin testing the support level of $90,000. If it goes below this level, the bearish signal in the MACD histogram will be confirmed, and the market may enter a more pronounced downtrend.

US Inflation Data Will Be Critical

One of the most important developments that will determine the short-term direction of Bitcoin will be the **CPI data to be announced on February 12th (CPI). If inflation comes in higher than expected, the possibility of the (Fed) delaying interest rate cuts may increase, which could create additional selling pressure on Bitcoin.

In light of all these developments, Bitcoin investors need to carefully monitor both technical and macro factors. While technical indicators have not yet provided a clear sell signal, it should not be forgotten that macroeconomic uncertainties can lead to larger fluctuations in the markets.