Macroeconomics:

1. The overall performance of the US data released on Thursday was better than the previous value. The US economy showed strong performance, which strengthened the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and caused the US dollar index to break through and rise.
2. The core PCE price index for November will be released in the evening, with a bearish expectation (high price index indicating persistent inflation). If the actual value is bearish, it may serve as a catalyst for another short-term decline in the bearish market.
3. ReAlpha, a U.S.-listed company, plans to use 25% of excess cash to buy cryptocurrencies; Trump's crypto project World Liberty buys 722.2 ETH - large investors and institutional buying actions In addition to being optimistic about the prospects of cryptocurrencies, it is necessary to consider taking advantage of the price pullback
4, liquidation data shows that the total liquidation amount in the past 24H is 1.023 billion US dollars, with over 300,000 people being liquidated.
5. BTC spot ETF sees significant outflows, creating a short-term panic sell-off in the market. This behavior can be interpreted as: large investors taking substantial profits after the previous rally + the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (selling on the news), short-term downside risks still need to be monitored.
Technical analysis:
BTC
1. The daily volume has decreased for two consecutive days, slightly breaking below the lower channel. The pattern is a trumpet mouth (downward), and it has now fallen below half of the pattern, indicating weakness.
2. The key watershed between long and short positions within the day is the lower channel, which is located in the area of concentrated chips. The predicted trend is as follows:
(1) The price has risen above the upper band and short-term fluctuations are weak around the high level.
(2) The price is constrained by the downward pressure of the lower track, and there is still room for further decline in the future.
When the daily closing is weak, there is a potential three black crows candlestick pattern (bearish).
3. In the 4-hour chart, the candlesticks continuously formed long lower shadows near the MA200, creating a double bottom pattern - theoretically a bullish reference, but it requires follow-up bullish candlesticks to confirm.
4. There was also a long lower shadow on the 10th of December, but it needs to be distinguished: it was above the EMA moving average in the early stage (slightly biased towards more) - it has now fallen slightly below the EMA moving average, and the bullish foundation is relatively weak.
5. At present, the price remains weak and volatile. For short-term trends, it is necessary to pay attention to the operation of the oscillation range. Trend trading still focuses on short selling, with reference to the upper limit of the oscillation range + EMA576, reverse suppression of the previous low point, and pressure near the downward trend line.
ETH
1. Daily three consecutive yin (three black crows - bearish), volume on the decline, good volume-price cooperation
2. The pattern presents an M-top. According to the 1:1 spatial measurement theory of the M-top pattern, the bearish target points to around 3100 (resonance support with a dense chip zone).
3. The short-term low point is supported by the previous high-level consolidation platform support. In the case of a short-term decline, pay special attention to the support of fibo0.5+0.618. From a bullish perspective, pay attention to the opportunity for low-level buying near this position.
4. In the 4-hour chart, the short-term maintains a downtrend, and the downtrend rhythm is evident in the performance of the Gann angle lines—gradually breaking below 3/1 and 4/1, each wave of breaking below is suppressed by the corresponding angle line in the opposite direction.
5, current support and pressure situation
Support 1: Gann angle line 8/1
Pre-bottom consolidation platform reverse support
Support for the rise and fall of the low point
fibo0.5
(Quadruple Resonance Support - Strong Support)
Support 2: fibo 0.618 + resonance support with previous platform low point
Pressure: Downward trend line + Gann angle line 4/1 resonance pressure + previous low reverse pressure
The above views are for reference only. Trading carries risks, please be aware of position and risk control.