The buzz around Pi Network has heated up again recently, mainly because their open mainnet was launched last February. At that time, industry expectations for Pi Network price predictions were indeed very high—ranging from optimistic $150–$300 to conservative $10–$20, with all kinds of voices. But looking back now, there is a big gap between market reality and those initial predictions.

Let me briefly sort out the background. Pi Network itself is a rather special project: users can mine directly on their phones. It uses a consensus protocol adapted from Stellar and is touted as energy-efficient and user-friendly. From the beta version launch in 2019 to today, it claims to have attracted tens of millions of users—millions, in fact. Last February, the mainnet was officially opened, which was indeed an important moment for pioneers: they could finally transfer Pi coins, connecting to real trading and real applications.

But here is the interesting contrast. The assumptions behind those early Pi Network price predictions were that the mainnet launch would bring large-scale adoption and improve liquidity. However, the actual price now is about $0.17, and the circulating supply has exceeded 10.2 billion. Compared with the $10–$300 prediction range at the time, the current price is nearly one-tenth of the most pessimistic scenario. What does this reflect? It may be that the market’s assessment of the project’s actual application prospects is far lower than what the early optimistic camp expected.

If you look deeper, there are several factors worth paying attention to. First is the issue of the authenticity of user data—officially claiming 70 million users, but in reality the number of active wallets is far lower. Second is inflation pressure: over the past year, the circulating supply has doubled, with no clear cap, which does affect long-term value. There are also issues such as the project’s centralized control and mandatory KYC verification, which are challenges for investor confidence.

So when looking at Pi Network price predictions now, you can’t just focus on the optimistic forecasts from back then—you also need to see what the market is saying with actual prices. The $0.17 price may reflect the market’s re-evaluation of the project’s true value. If you’re a pioneer or an investor, the key now is to observe whether Pi can find truly practical use cases in real applications, rather than hoping for short-term gains from the mainnet launch. The market is always more honest than predictions.