Shouchuang Futures: Live pig futures near-month contracts repeatedly hit new lows, ushering in the darkest hour

Today, live pig futures LH2605 contract continued its weak downward trend, with the lowest point during trading reaching 9,405 yuan/ton, a decline of over 2%. The current pig market fundamentals remain at the bottom of the cycle, characterized by an absolute oversupply, the continuation of the off-season demand, and deep losses across the entire industry. According to Mysteel data monitoring, in April, the planned slaughter volume of breeding enterprises in key provinces increased by 4.24% month-on-month compared to the actual slaughter in March, indicating ongoing pressure on supply that is difficult to ease in the short term. On the demand side, April still falls within the traditional off-season, with continued weak sales of chilled pork, overall sluggish terminal consumption, limited support for pig prices, and passive storage phenomena in the market. At the policy level, industry regulation has shifted from “soft guidance” to “hard constraints.” On March 19, a special industry meeting clarified that April to June would be designated as a concentrated window for accelerated destocking, aiming to reduce the breeding sow inventory to 36.5 million by the end of the third quarter. Overall, the current pig market is in the “darkest hour” of the cycle, and it is expected that pig prices in April and May will mainly fluctuate weakly and repeatedly test bottom levels. (First Capital Futures)