The SEC's recognition of cryptocurrencies as digital assets seems like a major victory for the industry, but the real question is: how long will this clarity last?

Paul Atkins moved quickly after taking office as SEC chairman. He issued a new classification stating that Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, and XRP are not securities. The crypto industry has been wanting this for years and has finally succeeded. The tough stance of the Gensler era is now behind us.

However, Atkins's term ends in 2031. This means a future SEC chairman could reverse these sec coin decisions. The industry is well aware of this. That’s why everyone is pushing for the passage of the Clarity Act—so these decisions can be codified by Congress and not easily changed by a future SEC head.

The problem is: after the November elections, Democrats could take control of Congress. Polls suggest this is a high probability. And Democrats are generally more skeptical of crypto. If that happens, the regulatory work on sec coins on Capitol Hill could stall. Polymarket investors see only a 63% chance of the Clarity Act being enacted into law by 2026.

This could mean a deadlock until the 2028 presidential election. Who will replace Trump and whether Atkins’s crypto-friendly approach will continue remains uncertain.

Crypto lobbyists said this week they are not worried. Cody Carbone, head of the crypto defense group at the Digital Chamber, claimed that signals coming from Congress are aligned with the SEC’s position. Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis also said on Friday that it’s too late to go back to regulatory uncertainty.

These statements are reassuring, but the reality is more complex. The SEC’s current sec coin decisions are good, but without legislation, it all depends on the preferences of a single SEC chairman. The industry is working to eliminate this uncertainty, but the political environment is unpredictable. We’ve won in the short term, but the fight continues in the long run.